Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (81%). 14 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wyoming vs. UNLV: O/U 49.5

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 19¢ · $58K held · ended Nov 8

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$58.0K

Combined PnL

$-6.3K

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 19¢

-61% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 81%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$43.4K

Total Shares106,140

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Over7 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares23,079

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$19.9K	$18.1K	$-1.7K	48% 405-446 (851)
nigiri99	Overavg 48.7¢	$3.6K	$8.7K	+$620.68	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$8.3K	$8.0K	-$281	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$5.2K	$5.0K	-$197.76	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Underavg 48¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$225.77	49% 451-468 (919)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 51.6¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	+$227.1	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$3.2K	$2.0K	-$97.03	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
RN1	Overavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$240.52	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 46¢	$3.6K	$1.6K	$-2.1K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 45.1¢	$3.0K	$1.3K	$-1.7K	66% 173-91 (264)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 52¢	$1,000	$980.77	-$19.23	55% 790-658 (1448)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 47.6¢	$2.2K	$846.78	$-1.4K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 55.7¢	$616.83	$790.2	+$173.38	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$473.48	$464.89	-$8.59	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 55¢	$275	$390	+$115	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 51¢	$357	$357	+$3.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$343	$325.5	-$17.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 51¢	$306	$279	-$27	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 55¢	$189.65	$262.12	+$72.47	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI Limousin	Overavg 49.7¢	$224.27	$241.18	+$16.91	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
MA MarkramCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.33	-$0.03	67% 2292-1123 (3415)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$19,870.11

Value

$18.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$3,613.75

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$620.68

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$8,260.23

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$281

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$5,212.46

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$197.76

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Under

Invested

$4,340.86

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$225.77

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$3,145.95

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$227.1

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$3,158.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$97.03

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,379.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$240.52

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$3,631.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$3,027.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980.77

PnL

-$19.23

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$2,238.23

Value

$846.78

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$616.83

Value

$790.2

PnL

+$173.38

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$473.48

Value

$464.89

PnL

-$8.59

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$275

Value

$390

PnL

+$115

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$357

Value

$357

PnL

+$3.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$343

Value

$325.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$306

Value

$279

PnL

-$27

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$189.65

Value

$262.12

PnL

+$72.47

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$224.27

Value

$241.18

PnL

+$16.91

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

MarkramCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.03

Record

67%

2292-1123 (3415)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 81%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.