Spread: Texas Tech (-16.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (54%) · Texas Tech at 64¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Texas Tech64¢West Virginia36¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 54%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$48.26

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 63.5¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech64%

West Virginia37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,103

Combined PnL+$282.97

West Virginia6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,832

Combined PnL-$234.71

Texas Tech — 54%West Virginia — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Texas Techavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.38	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Texas Techavg 51.7¢	$694.22	$772.74	+$88.52	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Texas Techavg 43.4¢	$468.77	$621.31	+$152.54	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	West Virginiaavg 57¢	$817.38	$595.11	-$222.27	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
PR primmCTR	West Virginiaavg 42¢	$509.88	$503.81	-$6.07	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
65 6512395314597884	Texas Techavg 53.9¢	$452.81	$483.46	+$30.65	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas Techavg 57¢	$285	$292.5	+$7.5	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	West Virginiaavg 51.7¢	$232.05	$230.93	-$1.12	47% 535-611 (1146)
VI vibing123CTR	West Virginiaavg 43¢	$208.55	$201.27	-$7.28	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	West Virginiaavg 50¢	$149.67	$151.68	+$2.01	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888	Texas Techavg 51.1¢	$159.32	$127.07	-$5.75	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texas Techavg 53.9¢	$34.11	$23.58	-$0.87	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 51¢	$1.25	$1.27	+$0.01	48% 405-446 (851)

RN1

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,203.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.38

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Texas Tech

Invested

$694.22

Value

$772.74

PnL

+$88.52

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ferrariChampions2026

Texas Tech

Invested

$468.77

Value

$621.31

PnL

+$152.54

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

justaluckydudeCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$817.38

Value

$595.11

PnL

-$222.27

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

primmCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$509.88

Value

$503.81

PnL

-$6.07

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

6512395314597884

Texas Tech

Invested

$452.81

Value

$483.46

PnL

+$30.65

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas Tech

Invested

$285

Value

$292.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$232.05

Value

$230.93

PnL

-$1.12

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

vibing123CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$208.55

Value

$201.27

PnL

-$7.28

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

HomeRunHazardCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$149.67

Value

$151.68

PnL

+$2.01

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

VeryLucky888

Texas Tech

Invested

$159.32

Value

$127.07

PnL

-$5.75

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9X<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$34.11

Value

$23.58

PnL

-$0.87

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.