Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Middle Tennessee, while the market favors Western Kentucky (56%). 22 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee

22 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Middle Tennessee (96%) · Middle Tennessee at 45¢ · $65K held · ends Nov 7

Western Kentucky56¢Middle Tennessee44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Middle Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Middle Tennessee 96%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.5K

Combined PnL

-$909.42

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 44.5¢

+1% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiddle Tennessee at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Middle Tennessee

22 of 23 top traders (96%)Underdog side (market favors Western Kentucky 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Western Kentucky56%

Middle Tennessee45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Middle Tennessee22 traders

Total Value$63.0K

Total Shares146,323

Combined PnL-$996.02

Western Kentucky1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,474

Combined PnL+$86.61

Middle Tennessee — 96%Western Kentucky — 4%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on Middle Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiddle Tennessee 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpMiddle Tennessee 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMiddle Tennessee 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Middle Tennessee 95% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.5¢	$13.3K	$13.1K	-$150.01	46% 5267-6109 (11376)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.1¢	$12.8K	$12.4K	-$324.07	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.6¢	$7.4K	$7.2K	-$268.48	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
VeryLucky888CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.5¢	$7.4K	$6.4K	-$169.9	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.5¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$52.56	50% 2762-2735 (5497)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$48.25	49% 1684-1757 (3441)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.7¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$51.92	47% 369-419 (788)
LI LimousinCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 42.7¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$18.56	51% 1749-1699 (3448)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$25	57% 4275-3202 (7477)
38 38791873984189CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 42.3¢	$2.9K	$2.1K	+$120.82	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Western Kentuckyavg 53.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$86.61	46% 517-596 (1113)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$43.96	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Western Kentuckyavg 56.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$24.43	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
└ Western Kentucky leg	Western Kentuckyavg 56.9¢	$601.37	$591.94	-$9.43
└ Middle Tennessee leg	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.5¢	$451.05	$436.05	-$15
PL pltrkr111CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 45¢	$1,000	$955.55	-$11.11	55% 781-652 (1433)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.7¢	$917.57	$902.14	+$31.47	54% 531-449 (980)
SE sentrioCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 42.5¢	$676.27	$683.55	+$31.13	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 45.5¢	$665.25	$628.02	-$37.24	50% 38089-37336 (75425)
OD OddstormCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.8¢	$509.21	$500.09	+$15.3	48% 7430-7967 (15397)
GC GC-PCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$440	$430	-$10	64% 10131-5728 (15859)
VE VenusianCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.7¢	$277.28	$266.76	-$10.52	49% 1721-1768 (3489)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.7¢	$271.52	$260.96	-$10.55	48% 1655-1767 (3422)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 42¢	$88.2	$83.25	+$1.39	50% 8376-8430 (16806)
└ Middle Tennessee leg	Middle Tennesseeavg 42¢	$56.7	$58.05	+$1.39
└ Western Kentucky leg	Western Kentuckyavg 56¢	$25.2	$25.2	-$0
tradecraftCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 42.9¢	$46.59	$46.75	+$0.16	51% 6491-6261 (12752)
MA MarkramCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.2¢	$10.8	$10.75	+$0.33	67% 2279-1122 (3401)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.7¢	$5.42	$5.21	-$0.21	50% 21456-21716 (43172)

hi774cCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$13,254.1

Value

$13.1K

PnL

-$150.01

Record

46%

5267-6109 (11376)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$12,769.79

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$324.07

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

6512395314597884CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$7,427.12

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$268.48

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

VeryLucky888CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$7,412.69

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$169.9

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$4,688.77

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$52.56

Record

50%

2762-2735 (5497)

LightParadoxCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$3,145.01

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$48.25

Record

49%

1684-1757 (3441)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$3,088.25

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$51.92

Record

47%

369-419 (788)

LimousinCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$2,946.73

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$18.56

Record

51%

1749-1699 (3448)

Bagwell306CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$25

Record

57%

4275-3202 (7477)

38791873984189CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$2,892

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$120.82

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Western Kentucky

Invested

$1,329.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$86.61

Record

46%

517-596 (1113)

FlaznorpCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$1,200.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$43.96

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

NM-PARB<$100

Western Kentucky

Invested

$1,052.42

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$24.43

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

Both legs:

Western Kentucky$601.3756.9¢-$9.43

Middle Tennessee$451.0544.5¢-$15

pltrkr111CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$1,000

Value

$955.55

PnL

-$11.11

Record

55%

781-652 (1433)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$917.57

Value

$902.14

PnL

+$31.47

Record

54%

531-449 (980)

sentrioCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$676.27

Value

$683.55

PnL

+$31.13

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

SnakeBallCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$665.25

Value

$628.02

PnL

-$37.24

Record

50%

38089-37336 (75425)

OddstormCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$509.21

Value

$500.09

PnL

+$15.3

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

GC-PCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$440

Value

$430

PnL

-$10

Record

64%

10131-5728 (15859)

VenusianCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$277.28

Value

$266.76

PnL

-$10.52

Record

49%

1721-1768 (3489)

MadridTimeCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$271.52

Value

$260.96

PnL

-$10.55

Record

48%

1655-1767 (3422)

RLWGARB<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$88.2

Value

$83.25

PnL

+$1.39

Record

50%

8376-8430 (16806)

Both legs:

Middle Tennessee$56.742¢+$1.39

Western Kentucky$25.256¢-$0

tradecraftCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$46.59

Value

$46.75

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

6491-6261 (12752)

MarkramCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.33

Record

67%

2279-1122 (3401)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

Research grade

NeutralMiddle Tennessee at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Middle Tennessee

22 of 23 top traders (96%)Underdog side (market favors Western Kentucky 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on Middle Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiddle Tennessee 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpMiddle Tennessee 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMiddle Tennessee 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Middle Tennessee 95% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Middle Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.