Spread: Wisconsin (-8.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin (56%) · Wisconsin at 69¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 14

Wisconsin69¢Maryland31¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wisconsin

Consensus Traders

Wisconsin 56%

Total Value

$42.4K

Combined PnL

$110.69

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 68.5¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wisconsin69%

Maryland32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maryland4 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares42,234

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Wisconsin5 traders

Total Value$23.9K

Total Shares42,441

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Maryland — 44%Wisconsin — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wisconsin) and the top 1000 (8 on Maryland) disagree here.

ctrWisconsin 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWisconsin 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maryland 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Marylandavg 50¢	$15.8K	$15.5K	-$316.86	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Wisconsinavg 50¢	$10.9K	$11.2K	+$220.86	49% 635-674 (1309)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Wisconsinavg 51¢	$5.4K	$7.6K	+$2.2K	1% 3-326 (329)
BO Bozos14	Wisconsinavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$100	6% 9-132 (141)
ET ethanazCTR	Marylandavg 49¢	$4.9K	$2.8K	$-2.1K	46% 384-454 (838)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Marylandavg 49¢	$245	$245	-$0	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Marylandavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.25	-$0.25	37% 977-1669 (2646)
VeryLucky888<$100	Wisconsinavg 49¢	$19.22	$8.27	+$0.78	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wisconsinavg 50¢	$5.04	$5.14	+$0.1	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Maryland

Invested

$15,843

Value

$15.5K

PnL

-$316.86

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Multicoloured-Serf

Wisconsin

Invested

$10,941

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$220.86

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Wisconsin

Invested

$5,369.47

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

3-326 (329)

Bozos14

Wisconsin

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

9-132 (141)

ethanazCTR

Maryland

Invested

$4,911.45

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

46%

384-454 (838)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Maryland

Invested

$245

Value

$245

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Maryland

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

VeryLucky888<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$19.22

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

ghorrock<$100

Wisconsin

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralWisconsin at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wisconsin

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wisconsin) and the top 1000 (8 on Maryland) disagree here.

ctrWisconsin 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWisconsin 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maryland 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wisconsin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.