Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Washington vs. Michigan State: O/U 45.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 46¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$16.43

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 46¢

-29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,353

Combined PnL-$598.55

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares8,006

Combined PnL+$614.98

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 65¢	$5.2K	$4.7K	-$562.57	60% 1016-678 (1694)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 35¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$694.13	52% 2654-2484 (5138)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$54.7	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.7¢	$965.12	$836.16	-$128.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.1¢	$515.28	$589.54	+$74.26
CM cm2897	Underavg 42¢	$449.4	$374.5	-$74.9	49% 1187-1228 (2415)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 60.7¢	$443.06	$332.28	-$110.78	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 35.8¢	$259.01	$256.79	-$2.22	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 60.9¢	$586.77	$227.67	+$84.15	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$51.3	$57	+$5.7	57% 3579-2662 (6241)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 42¢	$58.96	$49.13	-$9.83	43% 198-262 (460)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$66.15	$47.78	-$18.38	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 40¢	$21.81	$30.26	+$8.45	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 65.4¢	$20.76	$21.12	+$0.36	51% 917-874 (1791)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$38.94	$10.06	+$2.97	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.66	$2.01	-$0.65	50% 2600-2575 (5175)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$5,236.1

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$562.57

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$2,110.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$694.13

Record

52%

2654-2484 (5138)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,480.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$54.7

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Both legs:

Under$965.1238.7¢-$128.96

Over$515.2858.1¢+$74.26

cm2897

Under

Invested

$449.4

Value

$374.5

PnL

-$74.9

Record

49%

1187-1228 (2415)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$443.06

Value

$332.28

PnL

-$110.78

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$259.01

Value

$256.79

PnL

-$2.22

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$586.77

Value

$227.67

PnL

+$84.15

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.3

Value

$57

PnL

+$5.7

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$58.96

Value

$49.13

PnL

-$9.83

Record

43%

198-262 (460)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.15

Value

$47.78

PnL

-$18.38

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$21.81

Value

$30.26

PnL

+$8.45

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.76

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.94

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$2.97

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.