Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SMU, while the market favors Wake Forest (84%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: SMU (-2.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold SMU (53%) · SMU at 17¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

SMU17¢Wake Forest83¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SMU

Consensus Traders

SMU 53%

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 16.5¢

-67% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSMU at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SMU

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Wake Forest 84%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

SMU17%

Wake Forest84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wake Forest7 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares21,376

Combined PnL+$939.58

SMU8 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares21,752

Combined PnL$-6.8K

Wake Forest — 47%SMU — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Wake Forestavg 49¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$159.49	49% 635-674 (1309)
PR primm	Wake Forestavg 51.7¢	$2.7K	$3.5K	+$772.81	59% 931-653 (1584)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	SMUavg 51¢	$9.9K	$3.2K	$-6.7K	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
RN1CTR	SMUavg 46¢	$771.54	$621.98	-$149.56	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
38 38791873984189CTR	SMUavg 45.9¢	$177.17	$193.04	+$15.87	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
65 6512395314597884CTR	SMUavg 42¢	$86.23	$102.72	+$16.49	50% 3806-3775 (7581)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Wake Forestavg 56¢	$44.78	$53.19	+$8.41	47% 99-111 (210)
TimeTraveler<$100	Wake Forestavg 51¢	$51	$50	-$1	19% 18-76 (94)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	SMUavg 41¢	$34.12	$41.61	+$7.49	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	SMUavg 49.4¢	$36.86	$20	+$0.64	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
nigiri99<$100	Wake Forestavg 50¢	$11.5	$11.5	+$0	51% 568-535 (1103)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	SMUavg 42¢	$8.4	$10	+$1.6	52% 828-769 (1597)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wake Forestavg 52¢	$5.24	$5.04	-$0.2	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Wake Forestavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.23	+$0.08	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
GA gagarin59CTR<$100	SMUavg 37¢	$1.85	$0.83	-$1.03	42% 64-89 (153)

Multicoloured-Serf

Wake Forest

Invested

$7,814.99

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$159.49

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

primm

Wake Forest

Invested

$2,691.41

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$772.81

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

SMU

Invested

$9,872.53

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

RN1CTR

SMU

Invested

$771.54

Value

$621.98

PnL

-$149.56

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

38791873984189CTR

SMU

Invested

$177.17

Value

$193.04

PnL

+$15.87

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

6512395314597884CTR

SMU

Invested

$86.23

Value

$102.72

PnL

+$16.49

Record

50%

3806-3775 (7581)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$44.78

Value

$53.19

PnL

+$8.41

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

TimeTraveler<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$51

Value

$50

PnL

-$1

Record

19%

18-76 (94)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$34.12

Value

$41.61

PnL

+$7.49

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9XCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$36.86

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

nigiri99<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

NotJumpCTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$8.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

topdogbigboi<$100

Wake Forest

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

gagarin59CTR<$100

SMU

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$1.03

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

Research grade

AvoidSMU at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SMU

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Wake Forest 84%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SMU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.