Spread: Indiana (-14.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold USC (55%) · USC at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Indiana6¢USC94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

USC

Consensus Traders

USC 55%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$554.29

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 94¢

+59% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

USC

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana6%

USC94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

USC6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,696

Combined PnL+$50.81

Indiana5 traders

Total Value$565.19

Total Shares2,908

Combined PnL-$605.1

USC — 55%Indiana — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIndiana 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000USC 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	USCavg 57.3¢	$684.52	$728.34	+$43.82	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
65 6512395314597884	USCavg 59.9¢	$645.81	$653.84	+$8.03	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	USCavg 59.5¢	$595	$610	+$15	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
38 38791873984189	USCavg 61.6¢	$458.95	$283.6	-$19.65	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
fyrskenCTR	Indianaavg 34¢	$170	$210	+$40	50% 56-56 (112)
BI biying88888CTR	Indianaavg 42¢	$627.13	$209.04	-$418.08	44% 206-263 (469)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Indianaavg 40.3¢	$241.64	$83.86	-$157.78	48% 543-600 (1143)
PA Pan9X	USCavg 57.6¢	$105.42	$54.53	+$4.11	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Indianaavg 41¢	$99.63	$34.02	-$65.61	49% 1179-1209 (2388)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Indianaavg 44¢	$31.89	$28.27	-$3.62	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
GH ghorrock<$100	USCavg 66¢	$6.65	$6.15	-$0.5	53% 1867-1658 (3525)

RN1

USC

Invested

$684.52

Value

$728.34

PnL

+$43.82

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

6512395314597884

USC

Invested

$645.81

Value

$653.84

PnL

+$8.03

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

USC

Invested

$595

Value

$610

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

38791873984189

USC

Invested

$458.95

Value

$283.6

PnL

-$19.65

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

fyrskenCTR

Indiana

Invested

$170

Value

$210

PnL

+$40

Record

50%

56-56 (112)

biying88888CTR

Indiana

Invested

$627.13

Value

$209.04

PnL

-$418.08

Record

44%

206-263 (469)

justaluckydudeCTR

Indiana

Invested

$241.64

Value

$83.86

PnL

-$157.78

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

Pan9X

USC

Invested

$105.42

Value

$54.53

PnL

+$4.11

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

cm2897CTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$99.63

Value

$34.02

PnL

-$65.61

Record

49%

1179-1209 (2388)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$31.89

Value

$28.27

PnL

-$3.62

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

ghorrock<$100

USC

Invested

$6.65

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

USC

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIndiana 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000USC 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that USC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.