Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kentucky, while the market favors Tennessee (99%). 15 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Tennessee (-5.5)

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky (63%) · Kentucky at 1.2¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 7

Tennessee99¢Kentucky1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kentucky

Consensus Traders

Kentucky 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.2K

Combined PnL

$-8.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 1.2¢

-97% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidKentucky at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kentucky

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Tennessee 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tennessee99%

Kentucky1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tennessee9 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares38,610

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Kentucky15 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares44,048

Combined PnL$-12.3K

Tennessee — 38%Kentucky — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Tennesseeavg 53¢	$9.5K	$11.0K	+$1.5K	51% 1005-973 (1978)
esportsbetter1	Tennesseeavg 52.7¢	$6.7K	$7.4K	+$735.93	50% 191-194 (385)
betdge	Tennesseeavg 44.8¢	$1.6K	$3.0K	+$1.5K	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
nigiri99CTR	Kentuckyavg 47.4¢	$8.6K	$2.4K	$-6.2K	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Tennesseeavg 60¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$137.25	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
PR primmCTR	Kentuckyavg 48¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$250	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kentuckyavg 48¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$215.41	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Kentuckyavg 47.7¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$305.77	48% 405-446 (851)
RN1ARB<$100	Kentuckyavg 55.3¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$823.54	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Tennessee leg	Tennesseeavg 45.8¢	$450.24	$850.67	+$400.43
└ Kentucky leg	Kentuckyavg 55.3¢	$1.6K	$397.53	$-1.2K
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kentuckyavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	$924.78	-$293.77	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
65 6512395314597884	Tennesseeavg 44.7¢	$309.42	$597.92	+$288.5	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kentuckyavg 48¢	$498.24	$487.86	-$10.38	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
AU Aurelius7	Tennesseeavg 57.1¢	$405.24	$372.59	-$27.41	47% 274-313 (587)
NM NM-PCTR	Kentuckyavg 47.6¢	$376.18	$340.13	-$36.05	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Kentuckyavg 48.7¢	$253.69	$184.74	-$68.95	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Kentuckyavg 56¢	$549	$132.84	-$416.16	46% 454-543 (997)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kentuckyavg 47¢	$477.1	$126.93	-$350.17	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
GC GC-PCTR	Kentuckyavg 47¢	$153.97	$98.28	-$55.69	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VI vibing123CTR	Kentuckyavg 48¢	$3.8K	$88	$-3.8K	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Kentuckyavg 47¢	$282	$75	-$207	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tennesseeavg 49.7¢	$95.31	$50.47	+$1.8	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 56¢	$98	$23.71	-$74.29	66% 173-91 (264)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Tennesseeavg 62¢	$11.9	$16.6	+$4.69	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Tennesseeavg 96¢	$9.31	$9.56	+$0.25	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 44¢	$13.15	$2.33	-$5.2	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Tennessee

Invested

$9,462.62

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

1005-973 (1978)

esportsbetter1

Tennessee

Invested

$6,697.35

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$735.93

Record

50%

191-194 (385)

betdge

Tennessee

Invested

$1,575

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

nigiri99CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$8,610.3

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-6.2K

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Tennessee

Invested

$1,830.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$137.25

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

primmCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$250

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

38791873984189CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$2,243.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$215.41

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$1,669.73

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$305.77

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

RN1ARB<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$2,071.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$823.54

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Tennessee$450.2445.8¢+$400.43

Kentucky$1,621.555.3¢$-1.2K

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$1,218.54

Value

$924.78

PnL

-$293.77

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

6512395314597884

Tennessee

Invested

$309.42

Value

$597.92

PnL

+$288.5

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

SnakeBallCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$498.24

Value

$487.86

PnL

-$10.38

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Aurelius7

Tennessee

Invested

$405.24

Value

$372.59

PnL

-$27.41

Record

47%

274-313 (587)

NM-PCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$376.18

Value

$340.13

PnL

-$36.05

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

MadridTimeCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$253.69

Value

$184.74

PnL

-$68.95

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$549

Value

$132.84

PnL

-$416.16

Record

46%

454-543 (997)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$477.1

Value

$126.93

PnL

-$350.17

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

GC-PCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$153.97

Value

$98.28

PnL

-$55.69

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

vibing123CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$3,840

Value

$88

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$282

Value

$75

PnL

-$207

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Pan9X<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$95.31

Value

$50.47

PnL

+$1.8

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

biying88888CTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$98

Value

$23.71

PnL

-$74.29

Record

66%

173-91 (264)

justaluckydude<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$11.9

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$4.69

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$9.31

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$13.15

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$5.2

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

AvoidKentucky at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Kentucky

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Tennessee 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kentucky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4233.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4333.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.