Spread: Oklahoma State (-4.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (38%) · Texas Tech at 75¢ · $55K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma State26¢Texas Tech74¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.9K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 74.5¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma State26%

Texas Tech75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech5 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares50,660

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Oklahoma State8 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares49,116

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Texas Tech — 38%Oklahoma State — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Texas Techavg 55.7¢	$19.7K	$25.1K	+$5.4K	23% 18-61 (79)
VE VenusianCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 47¢	$11.4K	$11.4K	+$0	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Texas Techavg 53¢	$7.6K	$7.2K	-$357.49	48% 670-715 (1385)
PR primmCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 41.6¢	$6.9K	$5.4K	$-1.5K	59% 1044-726 (1770)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 47¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$77.45	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.94	48% 57-62 (119)
RN1ARB<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 44.5¢	$882.35	$837.78	-$44.57	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 44.5¢	$686.19	$639.93	-$46.26
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 58¢	$196.16	$197.85	+$1.69
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Texas Techavg 52¢	$416	$404	-$12	28% 408-1071 (1479)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 43.6¢	$367.02	$333.8	-$33.22	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
└ Texas Tech leg	Texas Techavg 60.5¢	$156.88	$172.52	+$15.63
└ Oklahoma State leg	Oklahoma Stateavg 43.6¢	$210.13	$161.28	-$48.85
VeryLucky888	Texas Techavg 51¢	$105.94	$104.9	-$1.04	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 49¢	$99.96	$59.16	-$40.8	53% 348-313 (661)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 48¢	$30.83	$31.15	+$0.32	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 48¢	$24	$24.25	+$0.25	51% 970-935 (1905)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 34¢	$29.92	$22	-$7.92	62% 1157-711 (1868)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texas Techavg 52.2¢	$40.68	$12.88	-$0.25	50% 1827-1860 (3687)

lightotunnel35

Texas Tech

Invested

$19,662.15

Value

$25.1K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

23%

18-61 (79)

VenusianCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$11,443.92

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Multicoloured-Serf

Texas Tech

Invested

$7,590.95

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$357.49

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

primmCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$6,916.79

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$2,551.76

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$77.45

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$1,254.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$39.94

Record

48%

57-62 (119)

RN1ARB<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$882.35

Value

$837.78

PnL

-$44.57

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Both legs:

Oklahoma State$686.1944.5¢-$46.26

Texas Tech$196.1658¢+$1.69

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Texas Tech

Invested

$416

Value

$404

PnL

-$12

Record

28%

408-1071 (1479)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$367.02

Value

$333.8

PnL

-$33.22

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Both legs:

Texas Tech$156.8860.5¢+$15.63

Oklahoma State$210.1343.6¢-$48.85

VeryLucky888

Texas Tech

Invested

$105.94

Value

$104.9

PnL

-$1.04

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$99.96

Value

$59.16

PnL

-$40.8

Record

53%

348-313 (661)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$30.83

Value

$31.15

PnL

+$0.32

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$24

Value

$24.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

vibing123CTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$29.92

Value

$22

PnL

-$7.92

Record

62%

1157-711 (1868)

Pan9X<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$40.68

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.