Texas A&M vs. South Carolina

18 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold South Carolina (67%) · South Carolina at 72¢ · $473K held · ended Nov 7

Texas A&M28¢South Carolina72¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Carolina

Consensus Traders

South Carolina 67%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$473.0K

Combined PnL

$15.0K

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 72¢

+27% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Carolina at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina

18 of 27 top traders (67%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texas A&M28%

South Carolina72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Carolina18 traders

Total Value$187.9K

Total Shares242,696

Combined PnL+$51.2K

Texas A&M9 traders

Total Value$61.9K

Total Shares221,191

Combined PnL$-36.2K

South Carolina — 67%Texas A&M — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 49¢	$103.4K	$125.7K	+$22.2K	48% 405-446 (851)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 49¢	$66.3K	$97.3K	+$31.0K
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 36.7¢	$37.2K	$28.4K	$-8.8K
RN1ARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 58.1¢	$56.6K	$58.4K	+$1.8K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 58.1¢	$34.3K	$42.6K	+$8.2K
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 39.3¢	$22.2K	$15.8K	$-6.4K
TA takeormake	South Carolinaavg 42.3¢	$37.9K	$53.4K	+$15.5K	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
65 6512395314597884	South Carolinaavg 55.1¢	$35.7K	$36.2K	+$5.5K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	South Carolinaavg 60¢	$28.2K	$33.8K	+$5.6K	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	South Carolinaavg 68.7¢	$39.1K	$23.9K	+$18.1K	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
ET ethanazCTR	Texas A&Mavg 50.4¢	$41.4K	$23.0K	$-18.4K	49% 730-758 (1488)
PR primmCTR	Texas A&Mavg 40.3¢	$32.5K	$22.6K	$-9.9K	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 64.3¢	$15.4K	$15.0K	-$437.68	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 64.3¢	$9.9K	$11.0K	+$1.2K
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 39.5¢	$5.6K	$4.0K	$-1.6K
CUTJALENHURTS	South Carolinaavg 77.5¢	$11.6K	$10.7K	-$849.78	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 52.6¢	$8.6K	$9.6K	+$1.0K	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 52.6¢	$5.4K	$7.4K	+$2.0K
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 40.3¢	$3.2K	$2.3K	-$989.87
VI vibing123CTR	Texas A&Mavg 40.1¢	$11.2K	$7.8K	$-3.4K	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
alpheclabs2	South Carolinaavg 54¢	$5.3K	$7.1K	+$1.8K	47% 1366-1547 (2913)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 60.3¢	$12.1K	$5.8K	+$729.67	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 60.3¢	$3.8K	$4.5K	+$1.5K
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 45.1¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$788.24
FE ferrariChampions2026	South Carolinaavg 61¢	$4.9K	$5.4K	+$482.45	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
betdge	South Carolinaavg 59¢	$4.0K	$4.9K	+$889.18	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
EdZacharyCTR	Texas A&Mavg 44.3¢	$6.6K	$4.2K	$-2.4K	43% 118-156 (274)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 60.9¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$101.14	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 60.9¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$450.5
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 43¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$551.64
EN ENDBOSSLLC	South Carolinaavg 67.7¢	$4.7K	$3.9K	+$4.5K	44% 330-424 (754)
0X 0xfFFF6537	South Carolinaavg 66.2¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$76.63	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Texas A&Mavg 40.8¢	$4.0K	$2.8K	$-1.3K	51% 1005-973 (1978)
CI cigarettes	South Carolinaavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$693	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
KateBollinger	South Carolinaavg 81.8¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$286.83	68% 1824-865 (2689)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 58.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$44.26	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 58.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$273.94
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 41.8¢	$964.72	$646.52	-$318.2
OJ ojgARB<$100	South Carolinaavg 69.6¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$226.39	43% 838-1096 (1934)
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 69.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$38.44
└ Texas A&M leg	Texas A&Mavg 42.1¢	$790.01	$525.18	-$264.83

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$103,443.67

Value

$125.7K

PnL

+$22.2K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Both legs:

South Carolina$66,252.5849¢+$31.0K

Texas A&M$37,191.136.7¢$-8.8K

RN1ARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$56,569.01

Value

$58.4K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

South Carolina$34,322.3458.1¢+$8.2K

Texas A&M$22,246.6739.3¢$-6.4K

takeormake

South Carolina

Invested

$37,901.97

Value

$53.4K

PnL

+$15.5K

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

6512395314597884

South Carolina

Invested

$35,740.97

Value

$36.2K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

South Carolina

Invested

$28,189.37

Value

$33.8K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

South Carolina

Invested

$39,141.18

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$18.1K

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

ethanazCTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$41,363.09

Value

$23.0K

PnL

$-18.4K

Record

49%

730-758 (1488)

primmCTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$32,477.96

Value

$22.6K

PnL

$-9.9K

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$15,437.93

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$437.68

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

South Carolina$9,854.7864.3¢+$1.2K

Texas A&M$5,583.1539.5¢$-1.6K

CUTJALENHURTS

South Carolina

Invested

$11,590.75

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$849.78

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

cm2897ARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$8,634.82

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Both legs:

South Carolina$5,387.7252.6¢+$2.0K

Texas A&M$3,247.140.3¢-$989.87

vibing123CTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$11,214.19

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

alpheclabs2

South Carolina

Invested

$5,297.65

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

47%

1366-1547 (2913)

38791873984189ARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$12,122.88

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$729.67

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

South Carolina$3,781.0360.3¢+$1.5K

Texas A&M$2,076.345.1¢-$788.24

ferrariChampions2026

South Carolina

Invested

$4,901.96

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$482.45

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

betdge

South Carolina

Invested

$4,031.61

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$889.18

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

EdZacharyCTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$6,645.92

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

43%

118-156 (274)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$4,051.8

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$101.14

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

South Carolina$2,470.0660.9¢+$450.5

Texas A&M$1,581.7443¢-$551.64

ENDBOSSLLC

South Carolina

Invested

$4,690.31

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

44%

330-424 (754)

0xfFFF6537

South Carolina

Invested

$3,252.94

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$76.63

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$4,048.48

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

51%

1005-973 (1978)

cigarettes

South Carolina

Invested

$2,079

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$693

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

KateBollinger

South Carolina

Invested

$2,403.12

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$286.83

Record

68%

1824-865 (2689)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$2,135.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$44.26

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

South Carolina$1,170.3858.3¢+$273.94

Texas A&M$964.7241.8¢-$318.2

ojgARB<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$1,918.96

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$226.39

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

Both legs:

South Carolina$1,128.9569.6¢+$38.44

Texas A&M$790.0142.1¢-$264.83

Research grade

NeutralSouth Carolina at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina

18 of 27 top traders (67%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.