Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas, while the market favors LSU (81%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Texas (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Texas (38%) · Texas at 20¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Texas20¢LSU80¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas

Consensus Traders

Texas 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$319.16

Smart Money Entry

38.7¢ → 19.5¢

-50% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texas20%

LSU81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,308

Combined PnL+$225.62

Texas3 traders

Total Value$548.42

Total Shares2,767

Combined PnL-$544.78

LSU — 63%Texas — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLSU 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000LSU 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	LSUavg 64¢	$420.48	$528.89	+$108.41	51% 639-619 (1258)
PR primm	LSUavg 62¢	$311.85	$403.48	+$91.63	59% 1044-726 (1770)
GA GaditimaCTR	Texasavg 39.8¢	$800.51	$397.27	-$403.24	49% 324-333 (657)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Texasavg 36¢	$269.36	$145.91	-$123.46	44% 283-358 (641)
PA Pan9X<$100	LSUavg 63.4¢	$77.94	$99.02	+$21.08	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Texasavg 36.9¢	$128.64	$88.68	-$12.6	68% 2656-1243 (3899)
└ LSU leg	LSUavg 64¢	$48.64	$61.18	+$12.54
└ Texas leg	Texasavg 36.9¢	$51.99	$27.5	-$25.14
GH ghorrock<$100	LSUavg 64.5¢	$13	$16.23	+$3.23	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	LSUavg 64¢	$5	$6.29	+$1.29	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Texasavg 38¢	$521.33	$5.25	-$18.08	55% 1770-1448 (3218)

nigiri99

LSU

Invested

$420.48

Value

$528.89

PnL

+$108.41

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

primm

LSU

Invested

$311.85

Value

$403.48

PnL

+$91.63

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

GaditimaCTR

Texas

Invested

$800.51

Value

$397.27

PnL

-$403.24

Record

49%

324-333 (657)

Forecastication2CTR

Texas

Invested

$269.36

Value

$145.91

PnL

-$123.46

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

Pan9X<$100

LSU

Invested

$77.94

Value

$99.02

PnL

+$21.08

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

purplegattoARB<$100

Texas

Invested

$128.64

Value

$88.68

PnL

-$12.6

Record

68%

2656-1243 (3899)

Both legs:

LSU$48.6464¢+$12.54

Texas$51.9936.9¢-$25.14

ghorrock<$100

LSU

Invested

$13

Value

$16.23

PnL

+$3.23

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

LSU

Invested

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$1.29

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Texas

Invested

$521.33

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$18.08

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

Research grade

AvoidTexas at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors LSU 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLSU 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLSU 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000LSU 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.