Tulane vs. Rice: O/U 47.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$286.45

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 55¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,392

Combined PnL-$59.08

Over3 traders

Total Value$699.19

Total Shares1,372

Combined PnL-$227.37

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 43¢	$923.21	$1.1K	+$203.96	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$941.89	$907.16	-$34.73	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$626.04	$572.76	-$53.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$315.85	$334.4	+$18.55
RN1	Underavg 54.6¢	$1.0K	$815.71	-$219.56	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
DA DanielsDixonCTR	Overavg 57¢	$570	$485	-$85	25% 21-63 (84)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 46.8¢	$484.66	$444.11	-$39.55	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 56.7¢	$127.5	$128.25	+$0.75	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 53¢	$124.04	$126.38	+$2.34	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 57¢	$1.3K	$85.94	-$143.12	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 54¢	$19.98	$15.91	-$4.07	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$37.83	$12.9	-$1.93	54% 295-256 (551)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Underavg 45¢	$6.32	$6.04	-$0.28	4% 24-538 (562)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$923.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$203.96

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$941.89

Value

$907.16

PnL

-$34.73

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

Both legs:

Under$626.0447¢-$53.28

Over$315.8553.8¢+$18.55

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,035.27

Value

$815.71

PnL

-$219.56

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

DanielsDixonCTR

Over

Invested

$570

Value

$485

PnL

-$85

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$484.66

Value

$444.11

PnL

-$39.55

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$127.5

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$124.04

Value

$126.38

PnL

+$2.34

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,255.98

Value

$85.94

PnL

-$143.12

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$19.98

Value

$15.91

PnL

-$4.07

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$37.83

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$1.93

Record

54%

295-256 (551)

pltrkr111<$100

Under

Invested

$6.32

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.28

Record

24-538 (562)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.