Tennessee vs. Texas A&M: O/U 43.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$156.91

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 93.5¢

+57% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,035

Combined PnL+$238.97

Over4 traders

Total Value$561.31

Total Shares1,851

Combined PnL-$395.88

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 70.9¢	$780	$687.5	-$92.5	59% 932-653 (1585)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 53¢	$803.92	$439.88	-$364.04	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 47¢	$848.2	$270.5	+$286.55	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Underavg 46¢	$199.1	$240.22	+$41.12	44% 44-57 (101)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 52¢	$109.42	$61.02	-$48.4	48% 636-676 (1312)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 29.9¢	$38.75	$55.96	+$17.21	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 50¢	$9.5	$13.3	+$3.8	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$5.1	$4.45	-$0.65	55% 1630-1337 (2967)

primm

Under

Invested

$780

Value

$687.5

PnL

-$92.5

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$803.92

Value

$439.88

PnL

-$364.04

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$848.2

Value

$270.5

PnL

+$286.55

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

0x0A77exmm

Under

Invested

$199.1

Value

$240.22

PnL

+$41.12

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$109.42

Value

$61.02

PnL

-$48.4

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.75

Value

$55.96

PnL

+$17.21

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$9.5

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$3.8

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.