Spread: Texas A&M (-2.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Tennessee (75%) · Tennessee at 98¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Texas A&M2¢Tennessee98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Tennessee 75%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 97.7¢

+84% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texas A&M2%

Tennessee98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tennessee9 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares16,764

Combined PnL+$170.45

Texas A&M3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares14,270

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Tennessee — 75%Texas A&M — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTennessee 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tennessee 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Tennesseeavg 53.3¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$99.48	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
PR primmCTR	Texas A&Mavg 47.4¢	$5.8K	$2.8K	$-3.1K	59% 948-662 (1610)
65 6512395314597884	Tennesseeavg 52.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$20.04	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tennesseeavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
38 38791873984189	Tennesseeavg 53.8¢	$1.0K	$995.08	-$34.03	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Tennesseeavg 55¢	$444.72	$752.35	+$307.64	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
dips.	Tennesseeavg 49¢	$359.66	$381.68	+$22.02	47% 1028-1153 (2181)
BI biying88888CTR	Texas A&Mavg 37¢	$394.42	$282.49	-$111.93	44% 206-263 (469)
VI vibing123CTR	Texas A&Mavg 46.4¢	$407.2	$197.36	-$209.84	62% 1142-703 (1845)
PA Pan9X	Tennesseeavg 54.3¢	$202.18	$193.75	-$8.43	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Tennesseeavg 49¢	$48.51	$51.48	+$2.97	58% 3662-2648 (6310)
NO NotJump<$100	Tennesseeavg 52.3¢	$41.74	$41.54	-$0.2	52% 895-837 (1732)

RN1

Tennessee

Invested

$4,119.6

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$99.48

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

primmCTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$5,839.3

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

6512395314597884

Tennessee

Invested

$1,485.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20.04

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tennessee

Invested

$1,147.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

38791873984189

Tennessee

Invested

$1,029.11

Value

$995.08

PnL

-$34.03

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Tennessee

Invested

$444.72

Value

$752.35

PnL

+$307.64

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

dips.

Tennessee

Invested

$359.66

Value

$381.68

PnL

+$22.02

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

biying88888CTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$394.42

Value

$282.49

PnL

-$111.93

Record

44%

206-263 (469)

vibing123CTR

Texas A&M

Invested

$407.2

Value

$197.36

PnL

-$209.84

Record

62%

1142-703 (1845)

Pan9X

Tennessee

Invested

$202.18

Value

$193.75

PnL

-$8.43

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$48.51

Value

$51.48

PnL

+$2.97

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

NotJump<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$41.74

Value

$41.54

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTennessee 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tennessee 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.