Temple vs. Navy: O/U 55.5

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 54¢ · $57K held · ended Nov 7

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 53.5¢

-8% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 20 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$36.0K

Total Shares63,634

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Over9 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares33,312

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.2¢	$15.8K	$16.6K	+$778.72	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 51¢	$11.4K	$10.4K	$-1.0K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50.4¢	$5.9K	$6.3K	+$369.06	48% 405-446 (851)
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 100¢	$10.9K	$5.6K	$-5.3K	49% 451-468 (919)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$4.3K	$3.2K	+$24	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$93.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$69.41
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$181.76	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$353.15	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0xheavy888	Underavg 49.7¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$161.25	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$95.63	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$4.02	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$703.5	$749	+$45.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$561.2	$511.68	-$49.52
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$70	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 51¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$49.02	55% 790-658 (1448)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$921.45	$942.42	+$20.97	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$525	$561.75	+$36.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.4¢	$396.45	$380.67	-$15.78
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$900.66	$825.24	-$75.42	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
latvian.demon	Underavg 49¢	$245	$267.5	+$22.5	55% 804-669 (1473)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 58.9¢	$268.1	$250.61	-$17.49	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 44¢	$110.36	$87.88	-$5.52	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$53.58	$65.09	+$1.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.4¢	$30.1	$22.79	-$7.32
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 75.8¢	$105.35	$64.64	-$40.71	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$50.43	$42.05	-$8.39	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 65.5¢	$42.55	$30.23	-$12.32	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 50¢	$22.5	$16.05	+$0.9	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
MA Markram<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.68	+$0.23	67% 2292-1123 (3415)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$2.54	$2.33	-$0.21	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.33	-$0.17	56% 9429-7491 (16920)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$15,817.66

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$778.72

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$11,404.46

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$5,904.2

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$369.06

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$10,873.22

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,325.98

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$24

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Under$1,677.450.3¢+$93.41

Over$1,531.5149.5¢-$69.41

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$3,036.4

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$181.76

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$2,588.52

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$353.15

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$2,112.5

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$161.25

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$1,385.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$95.63

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,264.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$4.02

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Under$703.550.2¢+$45.5

Over$561.251¢-$49.52

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$49.02

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$921.45

Value

$942.42

PnL

+$20.97

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Under$52550¢+$36.75

Over$396.4548.4¢-$15.78

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$900.66

Value

$825.24

PnL

-$75.42

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$245

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

55%

804-669 (1473)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$268.1

Value

$250.61

PnL

-$17.49

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$110.36

Value

$87.88

PnL

-$5.52

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Invested

$105.35

Value

$64.64

PnL

-$40.71

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.43

Value

$42.05

PnL

-$8.39

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.55

Value

$30.23

PnL

-$12.32

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$22.5

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Markram<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.23

Record

67%

2292-1123 (3415)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.17

Record

56%

9429-7491 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 20 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.