Spread: Navy (-7.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Navy (33%) · Navy at 50¢ · $61K held · ended Nov 7

Navy50¢Temple50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Navy

Consensus Traders

Navy 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.0K

Combined PnL

-$308.76

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 50¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNavy at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Navy

5 of 15 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Navy50%

Temple50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Navy5 traders

Total Value$41.1K

Total Shares82,122

Combined PnL-$297.83

Temple10 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares36,478

Combined PnL-$10.93

Navy — 33%Temple — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Navyavg 50.4¢	$35.9K	$35.6K	-$292.13	51% 233-227 (460)
HO HomeRunHazard	Templeavg 50.9¢	$10.8K	$10.6K	-$175.14	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Navyavg 48.8¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$93.26	48% 405-446 (851)
BA Bagwell306	Templeavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
PU purplegatto	Templeavg 50.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$11.33	49% 6418-6597 (13015)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Navyavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0	52% 1311-1197 (2508)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Navyavg 46.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$55.65	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Navy leg	Navyavg 46.7¢	$865.72	$926	+$60.28
└ Temple leg	Templeavg 50.7¢	$313.08	$308.45	-$4.63
38 38791873984189	Templeavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$6.63	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PL pltrkr111	Templeavg 51¢	$1,000	$980.39	-$19.61	55% 790-658 (1448)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Templeavg 26.8¢	$241.6	$450	+$208.4	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
NM NM-P	Templeavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$350	-$3.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Templeavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$350	-$3.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
SN SnakeBall	Templeavg 50¢	$165.1	$165.1	+$0	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Navyavg 61.8¢	$175.85	$153.5	-$22.35	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Navy leg	Navyavg 61.8¢	$127.85	$103.5	-$24.35
└ Temple leg	Templeavg 48¢	$48	$50	+$2
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Navyavg 85.1¢	$159.22	$109.64	-$47.23	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Temple leg	Templeavg 59.5¢	$73.68	$61.89	-$11.79
└ Navy leg	Navyavg 85.1¢	$81.29	$47.75	-$35.44
GH ghorrock<$100	Templeavg 50¢	$38.34	$26.88	+$0.38	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
VeryLucky888	Navyavg 47¢	$3.5K	$14.74	-$99.12	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
RL RLWG<$100	Navyavg 49¢	$7.35	$7.5	+$0.15	50% 8443-8488 (16931)

Kch-Temp

Navy

Invested

$35,894.16

Value

$35.6K

PnL

-$292.13

Record

51%

233-227 (460)

HomeRunHazard

Temple

Invested

$10,773.19

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$175.14

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Multicoloured-Serf

Navy

Invested

$3,728.85

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$93.26

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Bagwell306

Temple

Invested

$2,499.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

purplegatto

Temple

Invested

$1,986.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$11.33

Record

49%

6418-6597 (13015)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Navy

Invested

$1,614.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1311-1197 (2508)

LimousinARB<$100

Navy

Invested

$1,178.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$55.65

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Navy$865.7246.7¢+$60.28

Temple$313.0850.7¢-$4.63

38791873984189

Temple

Invested

$1,634.19

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.63

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

pltrkr111

Temple

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980.39

PnL

-$19.61

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Temple

Invested

$241.6

Value

$450

PnL

+$208.4

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

NM-P

Temple

Invested

$353.5

Value

$350

PnL

-$3.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Temple

Invested

$353.5

Value

$350

PnL

-$3.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

SnakeBall

Temple

Invested

$165.1

Value

$165.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Navy

Invested

$175.85

Value

$153.5

PnL

-$22.35

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Navy$127.8561.8¢-$24.35

Temple$4848¢+$2

Pan9XARB<$100

Navy

Invested

$159.22

Value

$109.64

PnL

-$47.23

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Temple$73.6859.5¢-$11.79

Navy$81.2985.1¢-$35.44

ghorrock<$100

Temple

Invested

$38.34

Value

$26.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

VeryLucky888

Navy

Invested

$3,543.83

Value

$14.74

PnL

-$99.12

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

RLWG<$100

Navy

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Research grade

NeutralNavy at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Navy

5 of 15 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Navy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.