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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Stetson — but Davidson won instead.

Stetson vs. Davidson

Resolved Davidson. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Stetson. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Stetson 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Signal

Stetson

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stetson0%

Davidson100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stetson3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,907

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Davidson4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,747

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Stetson — 43%Davidson — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Stetsonavg 53¢	$14.9K	$9.2K	$-5.7K	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
└ Stetson leg	Stetsonavg 53¢	$10.4K	—	$-10.4K
└ Davidson leg	Davidsonavg 48.1¢	$4.4K	$9.2K	+$4.8K
MD mde4life1986CTR	Stetsonavg 52¢	$5.1K	—	$-5.1K	48% 166-182 (348)
38 38791873984189	Davidsonavg 47¢	$1.4K	$3.0K	+$1.6K	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Davidsonavg 60.1¢	$665.99	$730.22	+$64.23	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
└ Stetson leg	Stetsonavg 17.4¢	$226.89	—	-$226.89
└ Davidson leg	Davidsonavg 60.1¢	$439.1	$730.22	+$291.12
GA Gaditima	Davidsonavg 47.6¢	$305.51	$642.42	+$336.91	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Stetsonavg 51¢	$94.93	$94	-$0.93	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
└ Stetson leg	Stetsonavg 51¢	$47.93	—	-$47.93
└ Davidson leg	Davidsonavg 50¢	$47	$94	+$47
PA Pan9X	Davidsonavg 47¢	$48.62	$100	+$51.38	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Stetsonavg 49¢	$3.52	—	-$3.52	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Davidsonavg 95.2¢	$4.76	$5	+$0.24	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100	Stetsonavg 50¢	—	—	+$0	— 1-0 (1)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Invested

$14,855.72

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Both legs:

Stetson$10,439.9453¢$-10.4K

Davidson$4,415.7848.1¢+$4.8K

mde4life1986CTR

Invested

$5,149.84

Value

—

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

48%

166-182 (348)

Invested

$1,410

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Invested

$665.99

Value

$730.22

PnL

+$64.23

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Both legs:

Stetson$226.8917.4¢-$226.89

Davidson$439.160.1¢+$291.12

Invested

$305.51

Value

$642.42

PnL

+$336.91

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

OddstormARB<$100

Invested

$94.93

Value

$94

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Both legs:

Stetson$47.9351¢-$47.93

Davidson$4750¢+$47

Invested

$48.62

Value

$100

PnL

+$51.38

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

—

PnL

-$3.52

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.24

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Smart Money Signal

Stetson

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xebc74bb6...5327bd

Slug

cfb-stet-dav-2026-11-07

Traders in this Market

nigiri99

Arbitrage — excluded

mde4life1986

Stetson — $0

38791873984189

Davidson — $3.0K

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Arbitrage — excluded

Gaditima

Davidson — $642.42

Oddstorm

Arbitrage — excluded

Pan9X

Davidson — $100

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Stetson — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Davidson — $5

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Stetson — $0

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