Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

South Carolina vs. Arkansas: O/U 39.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 40¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$136.59

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 40¢

-22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,715

Combined PnL+$546.38

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,812

Combined PnL-$409.79

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 48.4¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$545.49	59% 1044-726 (1770)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$1.0K	$767.78	-$252.31	43% 74-100 (174)
RN1CTR	Underavg 64.4¢	$574.18	$569.88	-$4.3	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 49¢	$490	$365	-$125	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 49¢	$247.42	$247.18	-$0.24	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 51¢	$368.6	$100.5	+$0.89	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$74.88	$53.82	-$21.06	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$50.4	$36.22	-$14.18	46% 775-926 (1701)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$34.5	$35.86	+$6.47	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9.38	$10.22	+$0.83	38% 1308-2106 (3414)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,186.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$545.49

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,020.09

Value

$767.78

PnL

-$252.31

Record

43%

74-100 (174)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$574.18

Value

$569.88

PnL

-$4.3

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$490

Value

$365

PnL

-$125

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$247.42

Value

$247.18

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$368.6

Value

$100.5

PnL

+$0.89

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.88

Value

$53.82

PnL

-$21.06

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.4

Value

$36.22

PnL

-$14.18

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.5

Value

$35.86

PnL

+$6.47

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.38

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$0.83

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.