Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan: O/U 47.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 30¢ · $990 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$989.6
-$309.86
33.6¢ → 29.5¢
-12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 82.3¢ | $580.91 | $490.67 | -$90.24 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $380 | $243.92 | -$133.92 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Overavg 18¢ | $90 | $122.5 | +$32.5 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 39¢ | $203.76 | $83.59 | -$120.16 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $24.2 | $35.53 | +$11.33 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $17.76 | $11.29 | -$6.48 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $5 | $2.1 | -$2.89 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
Invested
$580.91
Value
$490.67
PnL
-$90.24
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$380
Value
$243.92
PnL
-$133.92
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$90
Value
$122.5
PnL
+$32.5
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$203.76
Value
$83.59
PnL
-$120.16
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$35.53
PnL
+$11.33
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$11.29
PnL
-$6.48
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$2.89
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.