Spread: Central Michigan (-24.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (44%) · Sacramento State at 87¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan14¢Sacramento State86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sacramento State

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State 44%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$252.3

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 86.5¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan14%

Sacramento State87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State4 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,850

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Central Michigan5 traders

Total Value$776.53

Total Shares6,929

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Sacramento State — 44%Central Michigan — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCentral Michigan 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Central Michigan 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Sacramento Stateavg 55.7¢	$3.8K	$5.9K	+$2.1K	6% 3-49 (52)
RN1	Sacramento Stateavg 63.7¢	$964.41	$923.29	-$41.12	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
PR primmCTR	Central Michiganavg 42¢	$2.0K	$400.71	$-1.6K	61% 870-566 (1436)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Central Michiganavg 44.5¢	$311.65	$221.58	-$90.07	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189CTR	Central Michiganavg 44.6¢	$338.67	$64.6	-$274.07	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 64.5¢	$68.89	$62.28	+$2.74	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Central Michiganavg 45¢	$249.62	$47.15	-$202.47	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Central Michiganavg 44¢	$220	$42.5	-$177.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 64¢	$19.2	$25.8	+$6.6	60% 2617-1724 (4341)

metski29

Sacramento State

Invested

$3,800

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

3-49 (52)

RN1

Sacramento State

Invested

$964.41

Value

$923.29

PnL

-$41.12

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

primmCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$1,978.96

Value

$400.71

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

6512395314597884CTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$311.65

Value

$221.58

PnL

-$90.07

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189CTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$338.67

Value

$64.6

PnL

-$274.07

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9X<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$68.89

Value

$62.28

PnL

+$2.74

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$249.62

Value

$47.15

PnL

-$202.47

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$220

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$177.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$19.2

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$6.6

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCentral Michigan 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Central Michigan 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.