Oregon State vs. Boise State: O/U 65.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$25.22

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 50.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,349

Combined PnL+$37.81

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,655

Combined PnL-$63.03

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$937.39	$965.66	+$28.26	48% 636-676 (1312)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 55¢	$999.99	$963.63	-$36.36	4% 23-537 (560)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$946.9	$959.9	+$13	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$434.79	$489.69	+$54.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$512.11	$470.21	-$41.9
DA DanielsDixon	Underavg 53¢	$530	$505	-$25	25% 21-62 (83)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 53¢	$380.54	$380.54	+$0	6% 30-460 (490)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 48¢	$299.52	$296.4	-$3.12	52% 573-538 (1111)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 47¢	$197.03	$207.51	+$10.48	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$85.44	$87.43	+$1.99	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 54¢	$51.42	$50.95	-$0.48	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 58¢	$26.14	$24.95	-$1.19	54% 286-244 (530)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.09	$13.23	+$0.14	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5.03	$5.08	+$0.05	37% 1035-1784 (2819)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$937.39

Value

$965.66

PnL

+$28.26

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$999.99

Value

$963.63

PnL

-$36.36

Record

23-537 (560)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$946.9

Value

$959.9

PnL

+$13

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Over$434.7944¢+$54.9

Under$512.1155¢-$41.9

DanielsDixon

Under

Invested

$530

Value

$505

PnL

-$25

Record

25%

21-62 (83)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$380.54

Value

$380.54

PnL

+$0

Record

30-460 (490)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$299.52

Value

$296.4

PnL

-$3.12

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$197.03

Value

$207.51

PnL

+$10.48

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.44

Value

$87.43

PnL

+$1.99

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$51.42

Value

$50.95

PnL

-$0.48

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$26.14

Value

$24.95

PnL

-$1.19

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.09

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0.14

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.