Oregon State vs. Boise State: O/U 61.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$308.59

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 97.5¢

+55% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,374

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under1 trader

Total Value$762.41

Total Shares5,258

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 60.8¢	$2.7K	$3.8K	+$1.0K	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 39.2¢	$2.1K	$762.41	$-1.3K	60% 1016-678 (1694)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 61.9¢	$451.01	$648.06	+$197.05	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 74¢	$511.63	$632.62	+$120.99	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 61.7¢	$233.27	$372.82	+$139.55	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
US User7429	Overavg 73.7¢	$140.25	$174.17	+$33.92	41% 353-508 (861)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 59.6¢	$90.06	$134.53	+$44.46	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 60.6¢	$28.43	$41.74	+$13.32	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 61.4¢	$26.59	$38.53	+$11.94	55% 1703-1404 (3107)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,735.7

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,059.6

Value

$762.41

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$451.01

Value

$648.06

PnL

+$197.05

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$511.63

Value

$632.62

PnL

+$120.99

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$233.27

Value

$372.82

PnL

+$139.55

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

User7429

Over

Invested

$140.25

Value

$174.17

PnL

+$33.92

Record

41%

353-508 (861)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$90.06

Value

$134.53

PnL

+$44.46

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$28.43

Value

$41.74

PnL

+$13.32

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$26.59

Value

$38.53

PnL

+$11.94

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.