Spread: Boise State (-17.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State (62%) · Boise State at 61¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Boise State61¢Oregon State39¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Boise State

Consensus Traders

Boise State 62%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$70.89

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 60.5¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Boise State61%

Oregon State40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boise State8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,542

Combined PnL+$64.9

Oregon State5 traders

Total Value$678.68

Total Shares1,474

Combined PnL+$5.99

Boise State — 62%Oregon State — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon State) and the top 1000 (6 on Boise State) disagree here.

ctrBoise State 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Boise State 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Boise Stateavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$33.86	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
RN1	Boise Stateavg 60¢	$571.49	$550.74	-$20.74	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
TA takeormake	Boise Stateavg 54.7¢	$342.72	$381.86	+$39.14	57% 3579-2662 (6241)
CM cm2897CTR	Oregon Stateavg 40¢	$298	$301.73	+$3.73	49% 1187-1228 (2415)
VE Venusian	Boise Stateavg 46¢	$264.26	$270	+$5.74	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Oregon Stateavg 45¢	$263.67	$269.99	+$6.31	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 49.5¢	$99	$96	-$3	21% 21-81 (102)
38 38791873984189<$100	Boise Stateavg 50¢	$31.5	$31.82	+$0.32	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
PA Pan9X<$100	Boise Stateavg 50¢	$20.53	$27.85	+$7.32	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
LI LightParadox<$100	Boise Stateavg 46¢	$15.64	$15.98	+$0.34	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
MA MadridTime<$100	Boise Stateavg 47¢	$12.62	$11.55	-$1.07	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 54¢	$5.44	$5.54	+$0.1	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 69¢	$6.57	$5.43	-$1.14	58% 3692-2676 (6368)

Limousin

Boise State

Invested

$1,557.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$33.86

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

RN1

Boise State

Invested

$571.49

Value

$550.74

PnL

-$20.74

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

takeormake

Boise State

Invested

$342.72

Value

$381.86

PnL

+$39.14

Record

57%

3579-2662 (6241)

cm2897CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$298

Value

$301.73

PnL

+$3.73

Record

49%

1187-1228 (2415)

Venusian

Boise State

Invested

$264.26

Value

$270

PnL

+$5.74

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$263.67

Value

$269.99

PnL

+$6.31

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$99

Value

$96

PnL

-$3

Record

21%

21-81 (102)

38791873984189<$100

Boise State

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.82

PnL

+$0.32

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Pan9X<$100

Boise State

Invested

$20.53

Value

$27.85

PnL

+$7.32

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

LightParadox<$100

Boise State

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.34

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

MadridTime<$100

Boise State

Invested

$12.62

Value

$11.55

PnL

-$1.07

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$6.57

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$1.14

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon State) and the top 1000 (6 on Boise State) disagree here.

ctrBoise State 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Boise State 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boise State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.