Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 49.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 29¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$860.9

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 29¢

-34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares13,603

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,979

Combined PnL+$723.11

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 43.9¢	$4.4K	$3.0K	$-1.2K	61% 855-553 (1408)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Underavg 54.5¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$426.53	62% 1003-623 (1626)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 55.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$230.55	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$792.97	$741.74	-$51.24	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 44¢	$844.36	$556.51	-$287.85	70% 1655-702 (2357)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56¢	$809.24	$374.89	+$0.83	48% 969-1052 (2021)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56¢	$284.14	$360.24	+$76.11	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 44¢	$222.3	$214.63	-$7.68	56% 504-395 (899)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 43¢	$119.12	$80.34	-$38.78	47% 500-559 (1059)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$89.76	$64	-$10.91	49% 450-474 (924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$70.65	$47.65	-$23	29% 307-750 (1057)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 30.3¢	$44.23	$43.07	-$1.16	49% 1097-1127 (2224)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$4,422.15

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

PacersThreeandahalf

Under

Invested

$1,499.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$426.53

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,287.9

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$230.55

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$792.97

Value

$741.74

PnL

-$51.24

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$844.36

Value

$556.51

PnL

-$287.85

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$809.24

Value

$374.89

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$284.14

Value

$360.24

PnL

+$76.11

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$222.3

Value

$214.63

PnL

-$7.68

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$119.12

Value

$80.34

PnL

-$38.78

Record

47%

500-559 (1059)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$89.76

Value

$64

PnL

-$10.91

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.65

Value

$47.65

PnL

-$23

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.23

Value

$43.07

PnL

-$1.16

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.