Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 43.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 72¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 11

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

-$116.61

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 71.5¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares27,179

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares20,716

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 62.8¢	$15.1K	$16.1K	+$1.5K	61% 855-553 (1408)
VI vibing123	Overavg 65.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$190.19	63% 1078-644 (1722)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 39¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$805.8	70% 1655-702 (2357)
ET ethanazCTR	Underavg 39¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$568.23	46% 380-448 (828)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	+$136.42	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$705.22	$892.73	+$209.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.2¢	$489.64	$416.42	-$73.22
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 37.3¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$252.84	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.3¢	$1.1K	$825.49	-$298.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.4¢	$278.72	$324.4	+$45.68
RN1CTR	Underavg 37.3¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$369.48	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 54¢	$771.6	$931.92	+$160.32	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 36¢	$874.44	$692.82	-$181.62	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
BI biying88888	Overavg 55¢	$428.45	$564.78	+$136.33	27% 63-170 (233)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 32.5¢	$420.94	$405.85	-$15.1	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.5¢	$324.99	$273.72	-$51.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.7¢	$95.95	$132.13	+$36.18
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Underavg 36¢	$396	$313.5	-$82.5	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
betdgeCTR	Underavg 35¢	$350	$285.33	-$64.67	45% 19-23 (42)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 34.6¢	$305.17	$192.09	+$16.34	49% 450-474 (924)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.3¢	$82.46	$104.58	+$28.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.6¢	$110.62	$87.5	-$12.2
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Underavg 36¢	$100.8	$79.8	-$21	62% 1003-623 (1626)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$12.29	$8.74	-$3.56	49% 220-229 (449)

primm

Over

Invested

$15,089.37

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$1,989.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$190.19

Record

63%

1078-644 (1722)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$2,618.85

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$805.8

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

ethanazCTR

Under

Invested

$2,110.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$568.23

Record

46%

380-448 (828)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,599.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$136.42

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Over$705.2257.4¢+$209.64

Under$489.6432.2¢-$73.22

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,402.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$252.84

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Under$1,124.0137.3¢-$298.52

Over$278.7262.4¢+$45.68

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,396.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$369.48

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$771.6

Value

$931.92

PnL

+$160.32

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$874.44

Value

$692.82

PnL

-$181.62

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$428.45

Value

$564.78

PnL

+$136.33

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$420.94

Value

$405.85

PnL

-$15.1

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Under$324.9932.5¢-$51.28

Over$95.9552.7¢+$36.18

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Under

Invested

$396

Value

$313.5

PnL

-$82.5

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

betdgeCTR

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$285.33

PnL

-$64.67

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$305.17

Value

$192.09

PnL

+$16.34

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Both legs:

Over$82.4657.3¢+$28.53

Under$110.6234.6¢-$12.2

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Under

Invested

$100.8

Value

$79.8

PnL

-$21

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.29

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$3.56

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.