Spread: Ohio (-3.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (38%) · Ohio at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Ohio71¢Miami (OH)29¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 38%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$151.29

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 70.5¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio71%

Miami (OH)30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,021

Combined PnL+$826.69

Miami (OH)5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,031

Combined PnL-$977.98

Ohio — 38%Miami (OH) — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Ohioavg 56.8¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$823.33	0% 0-188 (188)
RN1CTR	Miami (OH)avg 43.2¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$826.09	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Miami (OH)avg 44¢	$220	$135	-$85	56% 502-393 (895)
38 38791873984189CTR	Miami (OH)avg 43¢	$130.72	$82.08	-$48.64	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 43.4¢	$43.37	$27	-$16.37	49% 446-472 (918)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Ohioavg 41¢	$6.56	$9.12	+$2.56	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 57¢	$7.66	$5.78	-$1.88	55% 399-332 (731)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Ohioavg 57¢	$2.85	$3.65	+$0.8	62% 2355-1453 (3808)

JokerTheClown

Ohio

Invested

$3,406.67

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$823.33

Record

0-188 (188)

RN1CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$2,206.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$826.09

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$220

Value

$135

PnL

-$85

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

38791873984189CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$130.72

Value

$82.08

PnL

-$48.64

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$43.37

Value

$27

PnL

-$16.37

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Ohio

Invested

$6.56

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$2.56

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$7.66

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$1.88

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Ohio

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.8

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

Research grade

NeutralOhio at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.