Nevada vs. Northern Illinois: O/U 47.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$58.85

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 53.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,806

Combined PnL+$93.72

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,698

Combined PnL-$34.87

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$48.09	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$970	-$30	54% 503-422 (925)
DA DanielsDixon	Overavg 50¢	$500	$535	+$35	22% 17-62 (79)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$290.95	$287.46	-$3.49	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 50¢	$264.26	$272.19	+$7.93	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
nigiri99	Overavg 51¢	$268.77	$271.41	+$2.64	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$47.5	$46.07	-$1.43	48% 301-331 (632)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$4.83	$4.88	+$0.05	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.28	$1.34	+$0.07	48% 635-675 (1310)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,091.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$48.09

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$970

PnL

-$30

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

DanielsDixon

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$535

PnL

+$35

Record

22%

17-62 (79)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$290.95

Value

$287.46

PnL

-$3.49

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$264.26

Value

$272.19

PnL

+$7.93

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$268.77

Value

$271.41

PnL

+$2.64

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.5

Value

$46.07

PnL

-$1.43

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.