Spread: Georgia (-16.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia (38%) · Georgia at 53¢ · $59K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia53¢Missouri47¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia

Consensus Traders

Georgia 38%

Total Value

$59.2K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia53%

Missouri48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia5 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares58,562

Combined PnL+$886.02

Missouri8 traders

Total Value$28.5K

Total Shares57,571

Combined PnL+$258.28

Georgia — 38%Missouri — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Georgiaavg 51¢	$28.4K	$29.3K	+$835.94	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
DO Donkey14CTR	Missouriavg 49¢	$12.3K	$12.4K	+$125.37	32% 7-15 (22)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Missouriavg 49¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$102	3% 12-393 (405)
BO Bozos14CTR	Missouriavg 49¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$51.02	6% 9-132 (141)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Georgiaavg 50¢	$898.63	$943.52	+$44.9	48% 635-675 (1310)
TH thatsabing0CTR	Missouriavg 50¢	$795.74	$779.83	-$15.91	63% 217-130 (347)
RN1	Georgiaavg 51¢	$412.08	$416.12	+$4.04	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Georgiaavg 51¢	$98.13	$99.09	+$0.96	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
38 38791873984189CTR	Missouriavg 49.2¢	$143.89	$82.87	-$4.29	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Missouriavg 49¢	$43.14	$43.14	-$0	48% 301-331 (632)
PA Pan9X<$100	Georgiaavg 52¢	$19.24	$19.43	+$0.19	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Missouriavg 49¢	$9.7	$9.7	-$0	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Missouriavg 49¢	$8.91	$9	+$0.09	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Georgia

Invested

$28,421.87

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$835.94

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Donkey14CTR

Missouri

Invested

$12,286.75

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$125.37

Record

32%

7-15 (22)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Missouri

Invested

$9,996

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$102

Record

12-393 (405)

Bozos14CTR

Missouri

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$51.02

Record

9-132 (141)

Multicoloured-Serf

Georgia

Invested

$898.63

Value

$943.52

PnL

+$44.9

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

thatsabing0CTR

Missouri

Invested

$795.74

Value

$779.83

PnL

-$15.91

Record

63%

217-130 (347)

RN1

Georgia

Invested

$412.08

Value

$416.12

PnL

+$4.04

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Georgia

Invested

$98.13

Value

$99.09

PnL

+$0.96

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

38791873984189CTR

Missouri

Invested

$143.89

Value

$82.87

PnL

-$4.29

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$43.14

Value

$43.14

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

Pan9X<$100

Georgia

Invested

$19.24

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$8.91

Value

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.