Spread: Oklahoma (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (60%) · Oklahoma at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma63¢Ole Miss37¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 60%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$38.3

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 63¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma63%

Ole Miss37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,588

Combined PnL+$339.22

Ole Miss4 traders

Total Value$292.94

Total Shares1,371

Combined PnL-$300.93

Oklahoma — 60%Ole Miss — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ole Miss) and the top 1000 (10 on Oklahoma) disagree here.

whaleOklahoma 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Oklahoma 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Oklahomaavg 50¢	$453.5	$725.6	+$272.1	50% 748-738 (1486)
TA takeormake	Oklahomaavg 80.5¢	$299.54	$254.82	-$44.72	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Ole Missavg 47¢	$506.66	$215.6	-$291.06	2% 7-336 (343)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Oklahomaavg 50¢	$108.49	$173.58	+$65.09	48% 720-766 (1486)
38 38791873984189	Oklahomaavg 52.7¢	$514.42	$54.87	+$31.35	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
RN1CTR<$100	Ole Missavg 20¢	$35.6	$54.29	+$18.69	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ole Missavg 45¢	$40.5	$18	-$22.5	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
PA Pan9X<$100	Oklahomaavg 53¢	$34.11	$12.75	+$13.64	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Ole Missavg 44¢	$11.1	$5.05	-$6.06	51% 3937-3725 (7662)
GH ghorrock<$100	Oklahomaavg 47¢	$2.52	$4.29	+$1.77	53% 2377-2113 (4490)

nigiri99

Oklahoma

Invested

$453.5

Value

$725.6

PnL

+$272.1

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

takeormake

Oklahoma

Invested

$299.54

Value

$254.82

PnL

-$44.72

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$506.66

Value

$215.6

PnL

-$291.06

Record

7-336 (343)

Multicoloured-Serf

Oklahoma

Invested

$108.49

Value

$173.58

PnL

+$65.09

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

38791873984189

Oklahoma

Invested

$514.42

Value

$54.87

PnL

+$31.35

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

RN1CTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$35.6

Value

$54.29

PnL

+$18.69

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$40.5

Value

$18

PnL

-$22.5

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Pan9X<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$34.11

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$13.64

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$11.1

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$6.06

Record

51%

3937-3725 (7662)

ghorrock<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$2.52

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$1.77

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ole Miss) and the top 1000 (10 on Oklahoma) disagree here.

whaleOklahoma 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Oklahoma 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.