Spread: Oklahoma (-16.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ole Miss (73%) · Ole Miss at 74¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma27¢Ole Miss73¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ole Miss

Consensus Traders

Ole Miss 73%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$32.59

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma27%

Ole Miss74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ole Miss8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,967

Combined PnL-$57.12

Oklahoma3 traders

Total Value$607.18

Total Shares1,981

Combined PnL+$24.53

Ole Miss — 73%Oklahoma — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOle Miss 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ole Missavg 63¢	$440.37	$513.77	+$73.39	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
GA Gaditima	Ole Missavg 82¢	$486.28	$373.6	-$112.67	49% 407-417 (824)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ole Missavg 77¢	$385	$367.5	-$17.5	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
38 38791873984189	Ole Missavg 63¢	$315	$367.5	+$52.5	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Ole Missavg 77¢	$350.12	$334.2	-$15.91	51% 3938-3726 (7664)
TA takeormakeCTR	Oklahomaavg 37¢	$443.63	$317.74	-$125.9	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
VE VenusianCTR	Oklahomaavg 18¢	$108.56	$223.15	+$114.59	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Ole Missavg 83¢	$123.76	$93.94	-$29.82	19% 40-169 (209)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Oklahomaavg 17¢	$30.46	$66.3	+$35.84	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ole Missavg 77¢	$33.88	$32.34	-$1.54	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ole Missavg 83.2¢	$22.94	$17.37	-$5.56	53% 2377-2113 (4490)

RN1

Ole Miss

Invested

$440.37

Value

$513.77

PnL

+$73.39

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Gaditima

Ole Miss

Invested

$486.28

Value

$373.6

PnL

-$112.67

Record

49%

407-417 (824)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ole Miss

Invested

$385

Value

$367.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

38791873984189

Ole Miss

Invested

$315

Value

$367.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Ole Miss

Invested

$350.12

Value

$334.2

PnL

-$15.91

Record

51%

3938-3726 (7664)

takeormakeCTR

Oklahoma

Invested

$443.63

Value

$317.74

PnL

-$125.9

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

VenusianCTR

Oklahoma

Invested

$108.56

Value

$223.15

PnL

+$114.59

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Ole Miss

Invested

$123.76

Value

$93.94

PnL

-$29.82

Record

19%

40-169 (209)

LimousinCTR<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$30.46

Value

$66.3

PnL

+$35.84

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

Pan9X<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$33.88

Value

$32.34

PnL

-$1.54

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

ghorrock<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$22.94

Value

$17.37

PnL

-$5.56

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

Research grade

NeutralOle Miss at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Ole Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOle Miss 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOle Miss 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ole Miss 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ole Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.