Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (50%) · Oklahoma at 57¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Ole Miss43¢Oklahoma57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oklahoma

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma 50%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$21.1

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ole Miss43%

Oklahoma57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares12,203

Combined PnL+$40.24

Ole Miss5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,875

Combined PnL-$19.14

Oklahoma — 50%Ole Miss — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Oklahomaavg 58¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$50	7% 16-201 (217)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Ole Missavg 42¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$50.05	48% 34-37 (71)
nigiri99	Oklahomaavg 54¢	$480.6	$511.75	+$31.15	51% 568-535 (1103)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ole Missavg 47.6¢	$592.47	$495.72	-$64.89	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Oklahomaavg 57¢	$413.86	$417.49	+$3.63	1% 8-586 (594)
SN SnakeBall	Oklahomaavg 48¢	$274.54	$328.87	+$54.34	48% 912-1002 (1914)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ole Missavg 43¢	$266.53	$263.43	-$3.1	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Ole Missavg 43¢	$26.23	$25.93	-$0.3	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
DV dv-pm<$100	Oklahomaavg 50¢	$7.5	$8.63	+$1.13	44% 31-39 (70)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Ole Missavg 51¢	$5.1	$4.2	-$0.9	51% 3873-3657 (7530)

JokerTheClown

Oklahoma

Invested

$5,800

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$50

Record

16-201 (217)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$4,204.3

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$50.05

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

nigiri99

Oklahoma

Invested

$480.6

Value

$511.75

PnL

+$31.15

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

38791873984189CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$592.47

Value

$495.72

PnL

-$64.89

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Oklahoma

Invested

$413.86

Value

$417.49

PnL

+$3.63

Record

8-586 (594)

SnakeBall

Oklahoma

Invested

$274.54

Value

$328.87

PnL

+$54.34

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

FlaznorpCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$266.53

Value

$263.43

PnL

-$3.1

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$26.23

Value

$25.93

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

dv-pm<$100

Oklahoma

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$1.13

Record

44%

31-39 (70)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.9

Record

51%

3873-3657 (7530)

Research grade

NeutralOklahoma at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOklahoma 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOklahoma 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.