Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Michigan vs. Oregon: O/U 41.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 27¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$231.43

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 26.5¢

-39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$883.97

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL+$281.52

Under5 traders

Total Value$769.21

Total Shares1,851

Combined PnL-$50.09

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$828.58	$797.03	-$31.54	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$443.52	$415.8	-$27.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$385.06	$381.23	-$3.82
PR primm	Overavg 51.9¢	$458.34	$737.31	+$278.97	59% 932-653 (1585)
bakedbeanburritoCTR	Underavg 44¢	$440	$550	+$110	— 3-5 (8)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 44.5¢	$300.59	$296.88	-$3.71	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$178	$172	-$6
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$122.59	$124.88	+$2.29
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$165.5	$160.63	-$4.87	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.4¢	$109.5	$103.63	-$5.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$56	$57	+$1
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 44¢	$256.08	$151.32	-$104.76	52% 2647-2473 (5120)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 56¢	$387.56	$146.67	+$2.56	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 44¢	$103.8	$46.1	-$57.7	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$11.28	$13.57	+$2.29	47% 540-597 (1137)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$8.13	$8.22	+$0.09	50% 2560-2519 (5079)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$828.58

Value

$797.03

PnL

-$31.54

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Both legs:

Over$443.5256¢-$27.72

Under$385.0648¢-$3.82

primm

Over

Invested

$458.34

Value

$737.31

PnL

+$278.97

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

bakedbeanburritoCTR

Under

Invested

$440

Value

$550

PnL

+$110

Record

—

3-5 (8)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$300.59

Value

$296.88

PnL

-$3.71

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Both legs:

Invested

$165.5

Value

$160.63

PnL

-$4.87

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Both legs:

Under$109.545.4¢-$5.87

Over$5656¢+$1

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$256.08

Value

$151.32

PnL

-$104.76

Record

52%

2647-2473 (5120)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$387.56

Value

$146.67

PnL

+$2.56

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$103.8

Value

$46.1

PnL

-$57.7

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.28

Value

$13.57

PnL

+$2.29

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.13

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.