Michigan vs. Oregon

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (54%) · Oregon at 89¢ · $418K held · ended Nov 14

Michigan12¢Oregon88¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$417.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 88.5¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

14 of 26 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michigan12%

Oregon89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oregon14 traders

Total Value$368.5K

Total Shares420,200

Combined PnL$-9.5K

Michigan12 traders

Total Value$45.6K

Total Shares401,141

Combined PnL+$4.3K

Oregon — 54%Michigan — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMichigan 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOregon 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oregon 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Oregonavg 89.9¢	$363.6K	$353.8K	$-9.8K	82% 106-24 (130)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Michiganavg 10¢	$30.0K	$34.5K	+$4.5K	51% 3880-3664 (7544)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Michiganavg 10¢	$15.7K	$7.6K	+$1.3K	52% 2647-2473 (5120)
RN1	Oregonavg 77¢	$5.1K	$5.8K	+$717.02	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
HA Hashbrown	Oregonavg 95¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$349.58	85% 314-56 (370)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Oregonavg 77¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$19.93	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
└ Oregon leg	Oregonavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$240
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 11.8¢	$939.44	$719.37	-$220.07
CM cm2897CTR	Michiganavg 10¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$162.83	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
DA darkumbreon88	Oregonavg 78¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15.85	61% 1048-661 (1709)
dips.	Oregonavg 92¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$42.39	47% 1014-1141 (2155)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Oregonavg 77¢	$848.65	$942.5	+$93.85	31% 211-477 (688)
└ Oregon leg	Oregonavg 77¢	$512.05	$581.88	+$69.83
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 11.7¢	$336.6	$360.63	+$24.02
OJ ojg	Oregonavg 92.4¢	$862.52	$821.91	-$34.37	48% 232-248 (480)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Oregonavg 87.7¢	$657.11	$686.03	+$28.92	56% 4072-3180 (7252)
PR primmCTR	Michiganavg 23¢	$1.9K	$627.4	$-1.3K	59% 932-653 (1585)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Michiganavg 22¢	$546.34	$571.17	+$24.83	59% 1135-781 (1916)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Michiganavg 9.8¢	$583.22	$535.78	-$47.44	38% 53-87 (140)
SU suitcase6628	Oregonavg 93¢	$421.31	$400.92	-$20.39	65% 635-348 (983)
SN SnakeBall	Oregonavg 79¢	$258.09	$255.6	-$2.49	47% 969-1095 (2064)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Michiganavg 9.6¢	$412.53	$237.44	-$175.1	49% 539-568 (1107)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Michiganavg 12¢	$363.38	$167.06	-$196.33	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
13 13897651	Oregonavg 93¢	$148.8	$141.6	-$7.2	43% 1206-1573 (2779)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Oregonavg 91¢	$99.19	$96.47	-$2.72	30% 250-586 (836)
38 38791873984189	Oregonavg 89.2¢	$810.04	$73.4	+$42.56	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
NO NotJump	Oregonavg 56.7¢	$126.69	$73.01	-$3.86	52% 883-823 (1706)
PA Pan9XCTR	Michiganavg 10.1¢	$245.31	$53.47	+$19.72	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Michiganavg 10.7¢	$23.91	$21.57	-$2.34	57% 3574-2660 (6234)

999585

Oregon

Invested

$363,574.33

Value

$353.8K

PnL

$-9.8K

Record

82%

106-24 (130)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Michigan

Invested

$30,000

Value

$34.5K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

51%

3880-3664 (7544)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Michigan

Invested

$15,653.53

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

2647-2473 (5120)

RN1

Oregon

Invested

$5,091.36

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$717.02

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Hashbrown

Oregon

Invested

$4,427.96

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$349.58

Record

85%

314-56 (370)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Oregon

Invested

$2,479.44

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$19.93

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Both legs:

Oregon$1,54077¢+$240

Michigan$939.4411.8¢-$220.07

cm2897CTR

Michigan

Invested

$1,085.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$162.83

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

darkumbreon88

Oregon

Invested

$1,235.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15.85

Record

61%

1048-661 (1709)

dips.

Oregon

Invested

$1,114.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$42.39

Record

47%

1014-1141 (2155)

babybellsARB<$100

Oregon

Invested

$848.65

Value

$942.5

PnL

+$93.85

Record

31%

211-477 (688)

Both legs:

Oregon$512.0577¢+$69.83

Michigan$336.611.7¢+$24.02

ojg

Oregon

Invested

$862.52

Value

$821.91

PnL

-$34.37

Record

48%

232-248 (480)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Oregon

Invested

$657.11

Value

$686.03

PnL

+$28.92

Record

56%

4072-3180 (7252)

primmCTR

Michigan

Invested

$1,924.02

Value

$627.4

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Michigan

Invested

$546.34

Value

$571.17

PnL

+$24.83

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Michigan

Invested

$583.22

Value

$535.78

PnL

-$47.44

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

suitcase6628

Oregon

Invested

$421.31

Value

$400.92

PnL

-$20.39

Record

65%

635-348 (983)

SnakeBall

Oregon

Invested

$258.09

Value

$255.6

PnL

-$2.49

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Michigan

Invested

$412.53

Value

$237.44

PnL

-$175.1

Record

49%

539-568 (1107)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Michigan

Invested

$363.38

Value

$167.06

PnL

-$196.33

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

13897651

Oregon

Invested

$148.8

Value

$141.6

PnL

-$7.2

Record

43%

1206-1573 (2779)

BillBenter2026<$100

Oregon

Invested

$99.19

Value

$96.47

PnL

-$2.72

Record

30%

250-586 (836)

38791873984189

Oregon

Invested

$810.04

Value

$73.4

PnL

+$42.56

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

NotJump

Oregon

Invested

$126.69

Value

$73.01

PnL

-$3.86

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Pan9XCTR

Michigan

Invested

$245.31

Value

$53.47

PnL

+$19.72

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$23.91

Value

$21.57

PnL

-$2.34

Record

57%

3574-2660 (6234)

Research grade

NeutralOregon at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

14 of 26 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Oregon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMichigan 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOregon 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOregon 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oregon 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.