Maine vs. University at Albany

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold University at Albany (50%) · University at Albany at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Maine2¢University at Albany98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

University at Albany

Consensus Traders

University at Albany 50%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$20.48

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 98.2¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUniversity at Albany at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

University at Albany

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maine2%

University at Albany98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

University at Albany5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,587

Combined PnL+$211.81

Maine5 traders

Total Value$191.74

Total Shares2,063

Combined PnL-$191.33

University at Albany — 50%Maine — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on University at Albany. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaine 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000University at Albany 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA Hashbrown	University at Albanyavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$36.21	85% 314-56 (370)
38 38791873984189	University at Albanyavg 83¢	$830	$950	+$120	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884	University at Albanyavg 83¢	$206.43	$236.27	+$29.84	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
PA Pan9X	University at Albanyavg 83¢	$124.5	$138.16	+$23.66	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
NO NotJumpCTR	Maineavg 50¢	$105	$105	+$0	52% 833-779 (1612)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Maineavg 17¢	$254.78	$74.94	-$179.84	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LR lryyy<$100	University at Albanyavg 79¢	$8.69	$10.79	+$2.1	45% 814-997 (1811)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Maineavg 5¢	$16.6	$8.47	-$8.13	44% 661-825 (1486)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Maineavg 5¢	$6.2	$3.16	-$3.04	58% 3610-2614 (6224)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Maineavg 14¢	$0.49	$0.18	-$0.32	48% 278-299 (577)

Hashbrown

University at Albany

Invested

$1,127.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.21

Record

85%

314-56 (370)

38791873984189

University at Albany

Invested

$830

Value

$950

PnL

+$120

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884

University at Albany

Invested

$206.43

Value

$236.27

PnL

+$29.84

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Pan9X

University at Albany

Invested

$124.5

Value

$138.16

PnL

+$23.66

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

NotJumpCTR

Maine

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

MadridTimeCTR

Maine

Invested

$254.78

Value

$74.94

PnL

-$179.84

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

lryyy<$100

University at Albany

Invested

$8.69

Value

$10.79

PnL

+$2.1

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

smithagentCTR<$100

Maine

Invested

$16.6

Value

$8.47

PnL

-$8.13

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Maine

Invested

$6.2

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$3.04

Record

58%

3610-2614 (6224)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Maine

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

Research grade

NeutralUniversity at Albany at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

University at Albany

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on University at Albany. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaine 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000University at Albany 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that University at Albany wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.