Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arkansas State, while the market favors Louisiana-Monroe (51%). 14 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Arkansas State (-14.5)

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas State (78%) · Arkansas State at 50¢ · $49K held · ended Nov 7

Arkansas State50¢Louisiana-Monroe50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arkansas State

Consensus Traders

Arkansas State 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.5K

Combined PnL

$776.23

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralArkansas State at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas State

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Louisiana-Monroe 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arkansas State50%

Louisiana-Monroe51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arkansas State14 traders

Total Value$43.7K

Total Shares88,177

Combined PnL+$808.8

Louisiana-Monroe4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,625

Combined PnL-$32.57

Arkansas State — 78%Louisiana-Monroe — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 48.5¢	$14.0K	$14.2K	+$288.75	51% 1118-1077 (2195)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 48.5¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$160.97	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
HI hi774cCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 48.2¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$199.03	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$60.71	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
VeryLucky888CTR	Arkansas Stateavg 48.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$35.7	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$6.23	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Arkansas State leg	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$13.75
└ Louisiana-Monroe leg	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$19.98
BA Bagwell306CTR	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20.85	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.5	52% 1311-1197 (2508)
VE VenusianCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 49.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$8.55	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
RN1CTR	Arkansas Stateavg 48¢	$731.72	$754.58	+$22.87	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Louisiana-Monroeavg 52¢	$520	$505	-$15	53% 1126-988 (2114)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Arkansas Stateavg 46.5¢	$365.21	$388.82	+$23.61	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$350	$350	+$0	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Louisiana-Monroe leg	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75
└ Arkansas State leg	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$350	$350	+$0	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Louisiana-Monroe leg	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$178.5	$176.75	-$1.75
└ Arkansas State leg	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75
RL RLWG<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 50.3¢	$37.7	$37.88	+$0.17	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 44.6¢	$29.14	$29.64	+$2.49	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$25.39	$25.14	-$0.25	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$22.54	$22.77	+$0.23	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 48.1¢	$9.89	$10.17	+$0.28	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 34.7¢	$3.34	$4.78	+$1.43	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.48	+$0.43	58% 3248-2345 (5593)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$13,952.4

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$288.75

Record

51%

1118-1077 (2195)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$7,591.59

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$160.97

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

hi774cCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$7,418.96

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$199.03

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$5,949.9

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$60.71

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

VeryLucky888CTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$3,047.13

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$35.7

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$2,777.74

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$6.23

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Arkansas State$1,443.8349¢+$13.75

Louisiana-Monroe$1,333.9151.3¢-$19.98

Bagwell306CTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$2,043.65

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.85

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$1,785

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

52%

1311-1197 (2508)

VenusianCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$1,703.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$8.55

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

RN1CTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$731.72

Value

$754.58

PnL

+$22.87

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

TheComboConnoisseur

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$520

Value

$505

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

1126-988 (2114)

6512395314597884CTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$365.21

Value

$388.82

PnL

+$23.61

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

NM-PARB<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Louisiana-Monroe$178.551¢-$1.75

Arkansas State$171.549¢+$1.75

GC-PARB<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Louisiana-Monroe$178.551¢-$1.75

Arkansas State$171.549¢+$1.75

RLWG<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$37.7

Value

$37.88

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$29.14

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$2.49

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$25.39

Value

$25.14

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$22.54

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$9.89

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$3.34

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$1.43

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.43

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

Research grade

NeutralArkansas State at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas State

14 of 18 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Louisiana-Monroe 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arkansas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.