Spread: Bowling Green (-5.5)

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (54%) · Bowling Green at 82¢ · $73K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green82¢Kent State18¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bowling Green

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$72.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 81.5¢

+73% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

14 of 26 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green82%

Kent State19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green14 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares59,488

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Kent State12 traders

Total Value$24.9K

Total Shares50,557

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Bowling Green — 54%Kent State — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKent State 57% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$19.1K	$19.6K	+$416	47% 500-558 (1058)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$16.4K	$17.1K	+$710.8	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$11.8K	$12.5K	+$705.66
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 46.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$5.14
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Kent Stateavg 54¢	$15.5K	$15.2K	-$286.59	5% 3-52 (55)
HI hi774cCTR	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$4.4K	$4.7K	+$264.72	8% 37-422 (459)
CUTJALENHURTS	Bowling Greenavg 47¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$864.81	52% 2582-2418 (5000)
38 38791873984189	Bowling Greenavg 48.9¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	+$351.49	48% 949-1019 (1968)
DA darkumbreon88	Bowling Greenavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$45.85	61% 900-577 (1477)
PR primmCTR	Kent Stateavg 47¢	$5.0K	$2.0K	$-1.2K	61% 855-553 (1408)
RN1	Bowling Greenavg 60.6¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$201.11	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$72.7	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$935.86	$992.01	+$56.15	59% 426-291 (717)
65 6512395314597884	Bowling Greenavg 47.9¢	$349.33	$527.24	+$177.92	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
betdge	Bowling Greenavg 42¢	$237.3	$435.05	+$197.75	45% 19-23 (42)
GC GC-P	Bowling Greenavg 47.6¢	$435.37	$431.25	-$4.12	16% 67-351 (418)
NM NM-P	Bowling Greenavg 47.5¢	$332.5	$329	-$3.5	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
IC ic4creamCTR	Kent Stateavg 51¢	$284.58	$295.74	+$11.16	1% 4-440 (444)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Kent Stateavg 51¢	$204	$212	+$8	10% 88-785 (873)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$191.67	$203.17	+$11.5	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
PA Pan9X	Bowling Greenavg 55¢	$216.64	$147.73	-$7.96	49% 444-470 (914)
SN SnakeBall	Bowling Greenavg 49¢	$106.1	$101.77	-$4.33	48% 190-206 (396)
RL RLWG<$100	Bowling Greenavg 49.9¢	$67.35	$63.45	-$3.9	68% 1599-746 (2345)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$39.86	$42.25	+$2.39	28% 275-716 (991)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bowling Greenavg 47¢	$38.71	$33.2	+$0.94	54% 383-322 (705)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 67¢	$29.2	$23.89	-$5.31	30% 134-317 (451)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 50¢	$13.1	$13.89	+$0.79	34% 233-457 (690)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bowling Green

Invested

$19,135.9

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$416

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$16,421.63

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$710.8

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Kent State$11,76150¢+$705.66

Bowling Green$4,660.6346.9¢+$5.14

lightotunnel35CTR

Kent State

Invested

$15,475.95

Value

$15.2K

PnL

-$286.59

Record

3-52 (55)

hi774cCTR

Kent State

Invested

$4,412.07

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$264.72

Record

37-422 (459)

CUTJALENHURTS

Bowling Green

Invested

$2,197.09

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$864.81

Record

52%

2582-2418 (5000)

38791873984189

Bowling Green

Invested

$3,001.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$351.49

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

darkumbreon88

Bowling Green

Invested

$2,200.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$45.85

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

primmCTR

Kent State

Invested

$5,046.3

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

RN1

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,456.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$201.11

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kent State

Invested

$1,211.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$72.7

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Kent State

Invested

$935.86

Value

$992.01

PnL

+$56.15

Record

59%

426-291 (717)

6512395314597884

Bowling Green

Invested

$349.33

Value

$527.24

PnL

+$177.92

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

betdge

Bowling Green

Invested

$237.3

Value

$435.05

PnL

+$197.75

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

GC-P

Bowling Green

Invested

$435.37

Value

$431.25

PnL

-$4.12

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

NM-P

Bowling Green

Invested

$332.5

Value

$329

PnL

-$3.5

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

ic4creamCTR

Kent State

Invested

$284.58

Value

$295.74

PnL

+$11.16

Record

4-440 (444)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Kent State

Invested

$204

Value

$212

PnL

+$8

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Kent State

Invested

$191.67

Value

$203.17

PnL

+$11.5

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

Pan9X

Bowling Green

Invested

$216.64

Value

$147.73

PnL

-$7.96

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

SnakeBall

Bowling Green

Invested

$106.1

Value

$101.77

PnL

-$4.33

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

RLWG<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$67.35

Value

$63.45

PnL

-$3.9

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$39.86

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$2.39

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

ghorrock<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$38.71

Value

$33.2

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$29.2

Value

$23.89

PnL

-$5.31

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$13.1

Value

$13.89

PnL

+$0.79

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

14 of 26 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKent State 57% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.