Spread: Bowling Green (-4.5)

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (80%) · Bowling Green at 84¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green84¢Kent State16¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bowling Green

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 84¢

+64% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green84%

Kent State16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State3 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares26,511

Combined PnL+$751.54

Bowling Green12 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares29,235

Combined PnL+$301.89

Kent State — 20%Bowling Green — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBowling Green 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW PwaddlerCTR	Kent Stateavg 49¢	$10.2K	$10.8K	+$625.55	49% 259-274 (533)
PR primm	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$4.7K	$5.8K	+$1.8K	61% 855-553 (1408)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$6.5K	$5.0K	$-1.5K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kent Stateavg 49.9¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$115.75	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
RN1	Bowling Greenavg 55.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$237.98	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
HI hi774c	Bowling Greenavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$336.6	8% 37-422 (459)
38 38791873984189	Bowling Greenavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$945.22	+$126.14	48% 949-1019 (1968)
65 6512395314597884	Bowling Greenavg 49.4¢	$522.93	$689.45	+$166.53	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$462.44	$353.69	-$108.75	47% 500-558 (1058)
JU justaluckydude	Bowling Greenavg 52¢	$259.95	$247.5	-$12.45	30% 134-317 (451)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kent Stateavg 57¢	$145.81	$156.05	+$10.23	56% 488-383 (871)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$204	$156	-$48	10% 88-785 (873)
NM NM-P	Bowling Greenavg 48¢	$168	$136.5	-$31.5	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
GC GC-P	Bowling Greenavg 48¢	$168	$136.5	-$31.5	16% 67-351 (418)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 44.6¢	$150.75	$134.47	-$4.78	49% 444-470 (914)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 44.6¢	$107.1	$93.6	-$13.5
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 48.5¢	$32.5	$40.87	+$8.72
GH ghorrock<$100	Bowling Greenavg 50.5¢	$20.56	$18.68	-$1.88	54% 383-322 (705)

PwaddlerCTR

Kent State

Invested

$10,217.32

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$625.55

Record

49%

259-274 (533)

primm

Bowling Green

Invested

$4,724.85

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

HomeRunHazard

Bowling Green

Invested

$6,474.43

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kent State

Invested

$2,694.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$115.75

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

RN1

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,182.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$237.98

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

hi774c

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$336.6

Record

37-422 (459)

38791873984189

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,114.95

Value

$945.22

PnL

+$126.14

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

6512395314597884

Bowling Green

Invested

$522.93

Value

$689.45

PnL

+$166.53

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Multicoloured-Serf

Bowling Green

Invested

$462.44

Value

$353.69

PnL

-$108.75

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

justaluckydude

Bowling Green

Invested

$259.95

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$12.45

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kent State

Invested

$145.81

Value

$156.05

PnL

+$10.23

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bowling Green

Invested

$204

Value

$156

PnL

-$48

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

NM-P

Bowling Green

Invested

$168

Value

$136.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

GC-P

Bowling Green

Invested

$168

Value

$136.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Pan9XARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$150.75

Value

$134.47

PnL

-$4.78

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$107.144.6¢-$13.5

Kent State$32.548.5¢+$8.72

ghorrock<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$20.56

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$1.88

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBowling Green 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bowling Green 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.