Spread: UCLA (-20.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (25%) · Illinois at 79¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA22¢Illinois78¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Illinois

Consensus Traders

Illinois 25%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$51.24

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 78.5¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA22%

Illinois79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,902

Combined PnL+$483.31

UCLA9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,214

Combined PnL-$534.55

Illinois — 25%UCLA — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUCLA 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UCLA 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Illinoisavg 61.3¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$412.53	59% 899-622 (1521)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Illinoisavg 73¢	$928.2	$985.41	+$57.22	61% 1027-652 (1679)
RN1CTR	UCLAavg 34.9¢	$1.1K	$904.11	-$243.33	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UCLAavg 35.2¢	$341.58	$266.93	-$74.65	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UCLAavg 40¢	$400	$245	-$155	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
38 38791873984189CTR	UCLAavg 38¢	$332.07	$144.25	-$68.03	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
AM AmericaFirst1	Illinoisavg 62.3¢	$102.53	$116.09	+$13.56	47% 72-82 (154)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UCLAavg 34.3¢	$84.74	$68.58	-$16.15	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	UCLAavg 27¢	$25.06	$38.98	+$13.92	36% 890-1596 (2486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	UCLAavg 27¢	$16.55	$25.74	+$9.19	36% 910-1584 (2494)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	UCLAavg 27¢	$13.5	$13.75	+$0.25	53% 750-669 (1419)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	UCLAavg 37¢	$2.22	$1.47	-$0.75	59% 3388-2384 (5772)

primm

Illinois

Invested

$2,735.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$412.53

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

PacersThreeandahalf

Illinois

Invested

$928.2

Value

$985.41

PnL

+$57.22

Record

61%

1027-652 (1679)

RN1CTR

UCLA

Invested

$1,147.44

Value

$904.11

PnL

-$243.33

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

6512395314597884CTR

UCLA

Invested

$341.58

Value

$266.93

PnL

-$74.65

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UCLA

Invested

$400

Value

$245

PnL

-$155

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

38791873984189CTR

UCLA

Invested

$332.07

Value

$144.25

PnL

-$68.03

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

AmericaFirst1

Illinois

Invested

$102.53

Value

$116.09

PnL

+$13.56

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$84.74

Value

$68.58

PnL

-$16.15

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

VenusianCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$25.06

Value

$38.98

PnL

+$13.92

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$16.55

Value

$25.74

PnL

+$9.19

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

NotJumpCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.75

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUCLA 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UCLA 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.