Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UCLA, while the market favors Illinois (56%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: UCLA (-13.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (69%) · UCLA at 44¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA44¢Illinois56¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 69%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$80.93

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 43.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Illinois 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA44%

Illinois56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,483

Combined PnL+$189.65

UCLA9 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares13,488

Combined PnL-$270.58

Illinois — 31%UCLA — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUCLA 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCLA 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Illinoisavg 53.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$88.14	59% 899-622 (1521)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UCLAavg 47.8¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$217.54	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
RN1CTR	UCLAavg 47.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$6.14	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
JU justaluckydude	Illinoisavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$100.82	44% 418-527 (945)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UCLAavg 49.9¢	$624.23	$566.02	-$58.21	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
38 38791873984189CTR	UCLAavg 47.1¢	$448.67	$424.08	-$24.59	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UCLAavg 49¢	$224.75	$229.18	+$4.43	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UCLAavg 42¢	$145.87	$170.18	+$24.31	48% 852-928 (1780)
PA Pan9XCTR	UCLAavg 46.7¢	$177.64	$146	-$6.18	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Illinoisavg 54.5¢	$97.88	$99.66	+$1.78	47% 72-82 (154)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Illinoisavg 51¢	$56.1	$55	-$1.1	40% 144-212 (356)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	UCLAavg 44.3¢	$10.79	$11.57	+$0.78	37% 819-1385 (2204)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	UCLAavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.97	+$0.27	59% 3388-2384 (5772)

primm

Illinois

Invested

$3,009.93

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$88.14

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UCLA

Invested

$3,107.63

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$217.54

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

RN1CTR

UCLA

Invested

$1,882.64

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$6.14

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

justaluckydude

Illinois

Invested

$1,374.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$100.82

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

6512395314597884CTR

UCLA

Invested

$624.23

Value

$566.02

PnL

-$58.21

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

38791873984189CTR

UCLA

Invested

$448.67

Value

$424.08

PnL

-$24.59

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UCLA

Invested

$224.75

Value

$229.18

PnL

+$4.43

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

SnakeBallCTR

UCLA

Invested

$145.87

Value

$170.18

PnL

+$24.31

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

Pan9XCTR

UCLA

Invested

$177.64

Value

$146

PnL

-$6.18

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Illinois

Invested

$97.88

Value

$99.66

PnL

+$1.78

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

NatoAlfista<$100

Illinois

Invested

$56.1

Value

$55

PnL

-$1.1

Record

40%

144-212 (356)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$10.79

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$0.78

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.27

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Illinois 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUCLA 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCLA 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.