Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 75.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$187.87

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 53¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares7,590

Combined PnL-$406.59

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,773

Combined PnL+$218.72

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 66.6¢	$4.7K	$3.7K	-$647.4	59% 899-623 (1522)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Overavg 33¢	$942.34	$933.24	+$0.9	58% 3466-2465 (5931)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 47.5¢	$426.93	$602.31	+$175.38	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 33¢	$459.36	$556.8	+$97.44	49% 1153-1192 (2345)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 59¢	$470.19	$533.94	+$63.75	42% 57-79 (136)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 32.1¢	$698.14	$118.47	+$128.59	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 31.9¢	$53.19	$55.02	+$1.83	37% 909-1532 (2441)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$39.06	$24	-$9.14	47% 72-82 (154)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$6.72	$8.4	+$1.68	43% 194-255 (449)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$4.2	$3.3	-$0.9	53% 760-685 (1445)

primm

Under

Invested

$4,680.58

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$647.4

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Over

Invested

$942.34

Value

$933.24

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

3466-2465 (5931)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$426.93

Value

$602.31

PnL

+$175.38

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$459.36

Value

$556.8

PnL

+$97.44

Record

49%

1153-1192 (2345)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$470.19

Value

$533.94

PnL

+$63.75

Record

42%

57-79 (136)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$698.14

Value

$118.47

PnL

+$128.59

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.19

Value

$55.02

PnL

+$1.83

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.06

Value

$24

PnL

-$9.14

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$6.72

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$1.68

Record

43%

194-255 (449)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.