Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clemson, while the market favors Georgia Tech (94%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Clemson (-7.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clemson (56%) · Clemson at 6.5¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Clemson7¢Georgia Tech93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clemson

Consensus Traders

Clemson 56%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$556.31

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 6.5¢

-89% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidClemson at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clemson7%

Georgia Tech94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,027

Combined PnL+$830.24

Clemson5 traders

Total Value$717.04

Total Shares3,409

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Georgia Tech — 44%Clemson — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Clemson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia Tech 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedClemson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clemson 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Georgia Techavg 46.5¢	$731.91	$1.5K	+$811.4	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 65.6¢	$817.21	$610.39	-$206.82	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Georgia Techavg 98¢	$220.5	$215.78	-$4.72	58% 3629-2629 (6258)
dips.	Georgia Techavg 98¢	$171.5	$167.83	-$3.68	47% 993-1122 (2115)
RN1CTR	Clemsonavg 53.5¢	$860.2	$65.97	-$794.23	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Georgia Techavg 47¢	$25.11	$52.35	+$27.24	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Clemsonavg 61¢	$424.71	$18.98	-$275.04	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9XCTR	Clemsonavg 61.5¢	$139.4	$16.76	-$108.64	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 67¢	$6.75	$4.94	-$1.81	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

primm

Georgia Tech

Invested

$731.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$811.4

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$817.21

Value

$610.39

PnL

-$206.82

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Georgia Tech

Invested

$220.5

Value

$215.78

PnL

-$4.72

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

dips.

Georgia Tech

Invested

$171.5

Value

$167.83

PnL

-$3.68

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

RN1CTR

Clemson

Invested

$860.2

Value

$65.97

PnL

-$794.23

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$25.11

Value

$52.35

PnL

+$27.24

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Clemson

Invested

$424.71

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$275.04

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9XCTR

Clemson

Invested

$139.4

Value

$16.76

PnL

-$108.64

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$6.75

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$1.81

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

AvoidClemson at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Clemson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia Tech 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedClemson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clemson 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clemson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.