Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ole Miss, while the market favors Georgia (96%). 8 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Georgia (-3.5)

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Ole Miss (44%) · Ole Miss at 4.5¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Georgia96¢Ole Miss4¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ole Miss

Consensus Traders

Ole Miss 44%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$-30.4K

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 4.5¢

-91% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOle Miss at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia96%

Ole Miss5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia10 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,769

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Ole Miss8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares78,021

Combined PnL$-34.5K

Georgia — 56%Ole Miss — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Georgiaavg 50.5¢	$1.7K	$3.2K	+$1.5K	48% 405-446 (851)
38 38791873984189	Georgiaavg 52.1¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$935.68	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Ole Missavg 50¢	$27.3K	$2.5K	$-24.9K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
RN1	Georgiaavg 53.8¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$713.91	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
esportsbetter1CTR	Ole Missavg 49¢	$10.2K	$1.3K	$-9.0K	50% 191-194 (385)
65 6512395314597884	Georgiaavg 55.2¢	$763.14	$1.2K	+$467.53	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
NM NM-P	Georgiaavg 50.2¢	$916.48	$923	+$6.52	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Georgiaavg 64¢	$487.3	$726.97	+$239.67	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Ole Missavg 49¢	$494.1	$494.1	-$5.04	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
GC GC-P	Georgiaavg 50¢	$346.5	$350	+$3.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
PA Pan9X	Georgiaavg 56.8¢	$171.11	$273.28	+$109.81	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
TA takeormake	Georgiaavg 64¢	$111.36	$166.17	+$54.81	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
VeryLucky888CTR	Ole Missavg 49¢	$1.1K	$28.75	-$267.89	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Ole Missavg 49¢	$306.9	$28.18	-$278.71	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
GH ghorrock<$100	Georgiaavg 50¢	$15.36	$17.58	+$2.22	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Ole Missavg 41¢	$26.76	$9.46	-$17.29	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
BO Bozos14CTR<$100	Ole Missavg 49¢	$77.28	$9.46	-$67.82	49% 148-152 (300)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ole Missavg 50.7¢	$3.51	$3.39	-$0.12	50% 21550-21844 (43394)

Multicoloured-Serf

Georgia

Invested

$1,691.63

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

38791873984189

Georgia

Invested

$2,423.91

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$935.68

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$27,309.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-24.9K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

RN1

Georgia

Invested

$1,733.38

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$713.91

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

esportsbetter1CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$10,239.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-9.0K

Record

50%

191-194 (385)

6512395314597884

Georgia

Invested

$763.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$467.53

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

NM-P

Georgia

Invested

$916.48

Value

$923

PnL

+$6.52

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Georgia

Invested

$487.3

Value

$726.97

PnL

+$239.67

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$494.1

Value

$494.1

PnL

-$5.04

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

GC-P

Georgia

Invested

$346.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$3.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Pan9X

Georgia

Invested

$171.11

Value

$273.28

PnL

+$109.81

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

takeormake

Georgia

Invested

$111.36

Value

$166.17

PnL

+$54.81

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

VeryLucky888CTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$1,111.02

Value

$28.75

PnL

-$267.89

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SnakeBallCTR

Ole Miss

Invested

$306.9

Value

$28.18

PnL

-$278.71

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

ghorrock<$100

Georgia

Invested

$15.36

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$2.22

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

sentrioCTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$26.76

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$17.29

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Bozos14CTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$77.28

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$67.82

Record

49%

148-152 (300)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ole Miss

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

Research grade

AvoidOle Miss at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ole Miss

8 of 18 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ole Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.