Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 3 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Fresno State vs. Texas State: O/U 61.5

3 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (16%) · Under at 21¢ · $61K held · ended Nov 14

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 16%

Total Value

$61.1K

Combined PnL

$8.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 20.5¢

-62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 19 top traders (16%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares53,171

Combined PnL-$140.73

Over16 traders

Total Value$32.7K

Total Shares51,874

Combined PnL+$8.7K

Under — 16%Over — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 53.7¢	$26.4K	$26.3K	-$115.92	48% 636-676 (1312)
VE Venusian	Overavg 46¢	$6.4K	$9.5K	+$3.2K	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 46¢	$4.1K	$6.5K	+$2.4K	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 46¢	$3.9K	$6.2K	+$2.3K	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
nigiri99	Overavg 46.8¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$65.54	52% 573-538 (1111)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$832.31	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
HI hi774c	Overavg 47¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.82	22% 179-619 (798)
LI Limousin	Overavg 46.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$10.68	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$14.81	55% 515-424 (939)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 46¢	$1.8K	$930	+$10	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
DA DanielsDixonCTR	Underavg 54¢	$539.99	$529.99	-$10	25% 21-62 (83)
RN1	Overavg 46.4¢	$449.11	$474.49	+$25.38	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 46¢	$310.96	$314.34	+$3.38	45% 268-322 (590)
GC GC-P	Overavg 47¢	$246.75	$249.38	+$2.63	38% 395-632 (1027)
NM NM-P	Overavg 47¢	$226.51	$228.92	+$2.41	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 46¢	$89.54	$89.8	+$0.26	47% 312-350 (662)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 65.3¢	$30.42	$31.68	+$1.26	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 67¢	$4.28	$4.38	+$0.1	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
GA Gaditima<$100	Overavg 45¢	$0.83	$0.84	+$0.01	48% 281-306 (587)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$26,401.58

Value

$26.3K

PnL

-$115.92

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$6,366.33

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$4,105.15

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$3,895.76

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,389.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$65.54

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,398.39

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$832.31

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,862.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.82

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$1,790.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$10.68

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,610.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$14.81

Record

55%

515-424 (939)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,754.47

Value

$930

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

DanielsDixonCTR

Under

Invested

$539.99

Value

$529.99

PnL

-$10

Record

25%

21-62 (83)

RN1

Over

Invested

$449.11

Value

$474.49

PnL

+$25.38

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$310.96

Value

$314.34

PnL

+$3.38

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$246.75

Value

$249.38

PnL

+$2.63

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$226.51

Value

$228.92

PnL

+$2.41

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$89.54

Value

$89.8

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$30.42

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$1.26

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Gaditima<$100

Over

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

281-306 (587)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 19 top traders (16%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.