Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Florida International, while the market favors Delaware (92%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Delaware (-4.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Florida International (73%) · Florida International at 8.0¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 14

Delaware92¢Florida International8¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida International

Consensus Traders

Florida International 73%

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

-$393.54

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 8¢

-85% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida International at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida International

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 92%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Delaware92%

Florida International8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida International8 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares39,988

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Delaware3 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares39,779

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Florida International — 73%Delaware — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Florida International. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida International 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida International 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Florida Internationalavg 51.8¢	$19.8K	$22.9K	+$3.1K	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Delawareavg 48.2¢	$18.4K	$14.9K	$-3.5K	49% 640-677 (1317)
PR primm	Delawareavg 40¢	$623.6	$865.25	+$241.65	59% 948-662 (1610)
RN1CTR	Florida Internationalavg 59¢	$557.74	$431.51	-$126.23	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Florida Internationalavg 60¢	$195.03	$228.39	+$33.36	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
38 38791873984189CTR	Florida Internationalavg 60¢	$175.8	$186.06	+$10.25	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 59.5¢	$42.04	$44.84	+$2.8	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 42.9¢	$41.4	$25.56	-$15.84	25% 62-187 (249)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Delawareavg 58¢	$38.66	$12.67	-$26	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 73¢	$73	$7	-$66	58% 3662-2648 (6310)
dips.CTR<$100	Florida Internationalavg 73¢	$73	$7	-$66	47% 1028-1153 (2181)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Florida International

Invested

$19,774.36

Value

$22.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

Multicoloured-Serf

Delaware

Invested

$18,378.92

Value

$14.9K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

49%

640-677 (1317)

primm

Delaware

Invested

$623.6

Value

$865.25

PnL

+$241.65

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

RN1CTR

Florida International

Invested

$557.74

Value

$431.51

PnL

-$126.23

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

6512395314597884CTR

Florida International

Invested

$195.03

Value

$228.39

PnL

+$33.36

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

38791873984189CTR

Florida International

Invested

$175.8

Value

$186.06

PnL

+$10.25

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$42.04

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$2.8

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$41.4

Value

$25.56

PnL

-$15.84

Record

25%

62-187 (249)

topdogbigboi<$100

Delaware

Invested

$38.66

Value

$12.67

PnL

-$26

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$73

Value

PnL

-$66

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

dips.CTR<$100

Florida International

Invested

$73

Value

PnL

-$66

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida International at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Florida International

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 92%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Florida International. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida International 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida International 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida International wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.