Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold East Carolina, while the market favors Charlotte (62%). 7 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: East Carolina (-11.5)

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina (39%) · East Carolina at 39¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

East Carolina39¢Charlotte61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

East Carolina

Consensus Traders

East Carolina 39%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

-$22.96

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 38.5¢

-22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEast Carolina at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Charlotte 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

East Carolina39%

Charlotte62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Carolina7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares15,217

Combined PnL-$441.39

Charlotte11 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares13,747

Combined PnL+$418.43

East Carolina — 39%Charlotte — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEast Carolina 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Charlotte 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	East Carolinaavg 49.4¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$93.51	37% 968-1674 (2642)
38 38791873984189	Charlotteavg 50.8¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$63.65	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Charlotteavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$4.02	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Charlotte leg	Charlotteavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.82
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 50¢	$495	$475.2	-$19.8
LI LimousinCTR	East Carolinaavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$429.54	36% 950-1657 (2607)
PU purplegatto	Charlotteavg 50¢	$983.5	$1.2K	+$177.03	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
HI hi774c	Charlotteavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$42.32	22% 179-619 (798)
nigiri99	Charlotteavg 50¢	$866	$1.1K	+$199.18	51% 568-535 (1103)
0xheavy888	Charlotteavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$40	54% 503-421 (924)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	East Carolinaavg 49¢	$925.8	$906.91	-$18.89	49% 635-674 (1309)
MA MadridTimeCTR	East Carolinaavg 49¢	$492.45	$411.75	-$80.7	37% 985-1642 (2627)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Charlotteavg 50¢	$254.8	$262.35	+$7.55	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9X<$100	Charlotteavg 50.8¢	$85.35	$87.36	+$2.01	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	East Carolinaavg 50¢	$87.5	$84	-$3.5	37% 364-613 (977)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Charlotteavg 50¢	$47.17	$58.02	+$10.85	44% 164-206 (370)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Charlotteavg 51¢	$37.23	$37.96	+$0.73	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	East Carolinaavg 50¢	$38	$36.48	-$1.52	48% 293-321 (614)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Charlotteavg 52¢	$68.11	$31.32	+$2.21	54% 286-244 (530)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	East Carolinaavg 50¢	$18.52	$17.77	-$0.74	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
GH ghorrock<$100	Charlotteavg 50¢	$5.04	$5.24	+$0.2	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

VenusianCTR

East Carolina

Invested

$4,097.84

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$93.51

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

38791873984189

Charlotte

Invested

$2,614.75

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$63.65

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$1,683.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$4.02

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Charlotte$1,18951¢+$23.82

East Carolina$49550¢-$19.8

LimousinCTR

East Carolina

Invested

$1,867.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$429.54

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

purplegatto

Charlotte

Invested

$983.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$177.03

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

hi774c

Charlotte

Invested

$1,058

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$42.32

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

nigiri99

Charlotte

Invested

$866

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$199.18

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0xheavy888

Charlotte

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

East Carolina

Invested

$925.8

Value

$906.91

PnL

-$18.89

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

MadridTimeCTR

East Carolina

Invested

$492.45

Value

$411.75

PnL

-$80.7

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Charlotte

Invested

$254.8

Value

$262.35

PnL

+$7.55

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9X<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$85.35

Value

$87.36

PnL

+$2.01

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

GC-PCTR<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$87.5

Value

$84

PnL

-$3.5

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

glennyorkshire<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$47.17

Value

$58.02

PnL

+$10.85

Record

44%

164-206 (370)

ferdinand2<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$37.23

Value

$37.96

PnL

+$0.73

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$38

Value

$36.48

PnL

-$1.52

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$68.11

Value

$31.32

PnL

+$2.21

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

NM-PCTR<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$18.52

Value

$17.77

PnL

-$0.74

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

ghorrock<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralEast Carolina at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina

7 of 18 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Charlotte 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEast Carolina 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Charlotte 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.