Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kennesaw State, while the market favors Delaware (53%). 11 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Delaware vs. Kennesaw State

11 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Kennesaw State (44%) · Kennesaw State at 47¢ · $123K held · ended Nov 7

Delaware53¢Kennesaw State47¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kennesaw State

Consensus Traders

Kennesaw State 44%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$122.7K

Combined PnL

$15.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 47¢

-7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

11 of 25 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Delaware53%

Kennesaw State47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State11 traders

Total Value$45.5K

Total Shares96,557

Combined PnL+$12.4K

Delaware14 traders

Total Value$37.4K

Total Shares70,050

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Kennesaw State — 44%Delaware — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 49.6¢	$25.2K	$23.9K	$-1.3K	49% 797-827 (1624)
RN1ARB<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 52.9¢	$20.3K	$22.9K	+$2.5K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Kennesaw State leg	Kennesaw Stateavg 52.9¢	$13.3K	$11.8K	$-1.5K
└ Delaware leg	Delawareavg 33.7¢	$7.0K	$11.1K	+$4.0K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Delawareavg 48¢	$16.7K	$18.5K	+$1.7K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Delawareavg 51¢	$14.6K	$15.1K	+$571.49	48% 405-446 (851)
ET ethanazCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 47.1¢	$10.4K	$8.4K	+$15.7K	49% 730-758 (1488)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Delawareavg 52.6¢	$7.4K	$7.0K	-$420.13	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Delaware leg	Delawareavg 52.6¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$30.95
└ Kennesaw State leg	Kennesaw Stateavg 53.5¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$451.08
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 55.6¢	$5.3K	$4.6K	-$748.46	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 55.1¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$433.54	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Delaware leg	Delawareavg 34.3¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$741.9
└ Kennesaw State leg	Kennesaw Stateavg 55.1¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$308.36
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 53¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$471.92	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 48.5¢	$6.2K	$3.6K	+$655.21	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Kennesaw State leg	Kennesaw Stateavg 48.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$186.79
└ Delaware leg	Delawareavg 43.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$468.42
0X 0xNuttawutCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 54.7¢	$3.9K	$3.4K	-$554.17	51% 1236-1201 (2437)
OJ ojgARB<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 63.3¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$216.87	43% 838-1096 (1934)
└ Kennesaw State leg	Kennesaw Stateavg 63.3¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$447.28
└ Delaware leg	Delawareavg 36.1¢	$491.06	$721.47	+$230.41
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 56¢	$1.1K	$940	-$180	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Delawareavg 36.7¢	$514.78	$743.59	+$228.81	47% 535-611 (1146)
AV averagejoetraders	Delawareavg 36¢	$500.35	$666.31	+$165.96	57% 676-519 (1195)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Delawareavg 61.7¢	$736.99	$633.02	-$103.97	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Delawareavg 37¢	$486.84	$622.43	+$135.58	53% 626-550 (1176)
HI hi774c	Delawareavg 51¢	$580	$602.75	+$22.75	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 47.8¢	$483.77	$476.05	-$7.72	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 53.3¢	$697.38	$461.62	+$197.3	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Delaware leg	Delawareavg 25.5¢	$154.85	$321.4	+$170.59
└ Kennesaw State leg	Kennesaw Stateavg 53.3¢	$159.03	$140.22	+$26.71
BO Bozos14	Delawareavg 51¢	$291.56	$302.99	+$11.43	49% 148-152 (300)
CI cigarettes	Delawareavg 1.2¢	$2.4	$106	+$103.6	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 37.4¢	$62.06	$78.09	+$16.02	56% 8963-7033 (15996)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 60¢	$97.8	$76.61	-$21.19	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 44¢	$61.35	$65.53	+$4.18	59% 33715-23828 (57543)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$25,241.07

Value

$23.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

797-827 (1624)

RN1ARB<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$20,318.52

Value

$22.9K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Kennesaw State$13,283.6252.9¢$-1.5K

Delaware$7,034.9133.7¢+$4.0K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Delaware

Invested

$16,722.8

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

Multicoloured-Serf

Delaware

Invested

$14,572.93

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$571.49

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ethanazCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$10,410.87

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$15.7K

Record

49%

730-758 (1488)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Delaware

Invested

$7,448.86

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$420.13

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Delaware$3,728.6352.6¢+$30.95

Kennesaw State$3,720.2453.5¢-$451.08

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$5,302.87

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$748.46

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$3,447.53

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$433.54

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Delaware$1,358.0734.3¢+$741.9

Kennesaw State$2,089.4655.1¢-$308.36

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$4,168.59

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$471.92

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$6,175.53

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$655.21

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Kennesaw State$2,014.548.5¢+$186.79

Delaware$1,305.8943.3¢+$468.42

0xNuttawutCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$3,941.5

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$554.17

Record

51%

1236-1201 (2437)

ojgARB<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$2,228.08

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$216.87

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

Both legs:

Kennesaw State$1,737.0163.3¢-$447.28

Delaware$491.0636.1¢+$230.41

0xfFFF6537CTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$1,120

Value

$940

PnL

-$180

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Delaware

Invested

$514.78

Value

$743.59

PnL

+$228.81

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

averagejoetraders

Delaware

Invested

$500.35

Value

$666.31

PnL

+$165.96

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Delaware

Invested

$736.99

Value

$633.02

PnL

-$103.97

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

oxe78sh4w98

Delaware

Invested

$486.84

Value

$622.43

PnL

+$135.58

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

hi774c

Delaware

Invested

$580

Value

$602.75

PnL

+$22.75

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$483.77

Value

$476.05

PnL

-$7.72

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Pan9XARB<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$697.38

Value

$461.62

PnL

+$197.3

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Delaware$154.8525.5¢+$170.59

Kennesaw State$159.0353.3¢+$26.71

Bozos14

Delaware

Invested

$291.56

Value

$302.99

PnL

+$11.43

Record

49%

148-152 (300)

cigarettes

Delaware

Invested

$2.4

Value

$106

PnL

+$103.6

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

13897651CTR<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$62.06

Value

$78.09

PnL

+$16.02

Record

56%

8963-7033 (15996)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$97.8

Value

$76.61

PnL

-$21.19

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$61.35

Value

$65.53

PnL

+$4.18

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

11 of 25 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kennesaw State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.