Spread: Central Michigan (-3.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (90%) · Central Michigan at 96¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 5

Central Michigan96¢Eastern Michigan4¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 90%

Total Value

$33.6K

Combined PnL

$15.3K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 96¢

+115% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan96%

Eastern Michigan4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan9 traders

Total Value$31.9K

Total Shares37,244

Combined PnL+$15.3K

Eastern Michigan1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,993

Combined PnL-$22.12

Central Michigan — 90%Eastern Michigan — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCentral Michigan 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrCentral Michigan 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedCentral Michigan 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Central Michigan 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Central Michiganavg 44.7¢	$13.8K	$26.3K	+$12.5K	55% 6202-5084 (11286)
38 38791873984189	Central Michiganavg 43.7¢	$988.06	$2.1K	+$1.2K	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
IC ic4creamCTR	Eastern Michiganavg 56.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$22.12	57% 2703-2003 (4706)
RN1	Central Michiganavg 43.6¢	$568.75	$1.1K	+$539.65	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
VeryLucky888	Central Michiganavg 44¢	$440	$850	+$410	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
0xheavy888	Central Michiganavg 44¢	$586.57	$527.92	+$269.82	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
SN SnakeBall	Central Michiganavg 43¢	$255.42	$504.9	+$249.48	50% 36455-35915 (72370)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Central Michiganavg 43¢	$215	$425	+$210	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Central Michiganavg 85.4¢	$59.77	$66.15	+$6.38	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Central Michiganavg 48¢	$23.08	$40.87	+$17.79	47% 11225-12583 (23808)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Central Michigan

Invested

$13,845.89

Value

$26.3K

PnL

+$12.5K

Record

55%

6202-5084 (11286)

38791873984189

Central Michigan

Invested

$988.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

ic4creamCTR

Eastern Michigan

Invested

$1,698.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$22.12

Record

57%

2703-2003 (4706)

RN1

Central Michigan

Invested

$568.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$539.65

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

VeryLucky888

Central Michigan

Invested

$440

Value

$850

PnL

+$410

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

0xheavy888

Central Michigan

Invested

$586.57

Value

$527.92

PnL

+$269.82

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

SnakeBall

Central Michigan

Invested

$255.42

Value

$504.9

PnL

+$249.48

Record

50%

36455-35915 (72370)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Central Michigan

Invested

$215

Value

$425

PnL

+$210

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

justaluckydude<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$59.77

Value

$66.15

PnL

+$6.38

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

topdogbigboi<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$23.08

Value

$40.87

PnL

+$17.79

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCentral Michigan 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrCentral Michigan 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedCentral Michigan 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Central Michigan 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.