Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Iowa State, while the market favors Cincinnati (53%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Iowa State (-17.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa State (47%) · Iowa State at 48¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Iowa State48¢Cincinnati52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa State

Consensus Traders

Iowa State 47%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$538.98

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 47.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa State at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa State

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Cincinnati 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Iowa State48%

Cincinnati53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa State7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,838

Combined PnL-$410.83

Cincinnati8 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares11,677

Combined PnL+$949.81

Iowa State — 47%Cincinnati — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO Johnny2d5CTR	Iowa Stateavg 50.2¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$214.99	— 2-1 (3)
TA takeormake	Cincinnatiavg 44¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$526.52	57% 3574-2660 (6234)
RN1	Cincinnatiavg 48.9¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$213.34	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$717.61	$748.07	+$30.46	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Cincinnatiavg 51¢	$562.74	$612.4	+$49.65	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
alpheclabs2	Cincinnatiavg 49.2¢	$499.81	$563.88	+$64.07	45% 300-362 (662)
38 38791873984189	Cincinnatiavg 50.5¢	$505.5	$555.56	+$50.06	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$666.76	$506.03	-$160.74	58% 3619-2623 (6242)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cincinnatiavg 50¢	$250	$277.5	+$27.5	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
CM cm2897CTR	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$156.24	$132.53	-$23.72	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
US User7429CTR	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$144.42	$109.6	-$34.82	40% 333-501 (834)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cincinnatiavg 51.3¢	$57.49	$62.16	+$4.67	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
NO NotJump<$100	Cincinnatiavg 41.5¢	$41.5	$55.5	+$14	51% 850-801 (1651)
dips.CTR<$100	Iowa Stateavg 56¢	$39.2	$33.25	-$5.95	47% 993-1122 (2115)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Iowa Stateavg 46¢	$33.12	$32.04	-$1.08	43% 185-243 (428)

Johnny2d5CTR

Iowa State

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$214.99

Record

—

2-1 (3)

takeormake

Cincinnati

Invested

$2,024.95

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$526.52

Record

57%

3574-2660 (6234)

RN1

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,591.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$213.34

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

6512395314597884CTR

Iowa State

Invested

$717.61

Value

$748.07

PnL

+$30.46

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Cincinnati

Invested

$562.74

Value

$612.4

PnL

+$49.65

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

alpheclabs2

Cincinnati

Invested

$499.81

Value

$563.88

PnL

+$64.07

Record

45%

300-362 (662)

38791873984189

Cincinnati

Invested

$505.5

Value

$555.56

PnL

+$50.06

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Iowa State

Invested

$666.76

Value

$506.03

PnL

-$160.74

Record

58%

3619-2623 (6242)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cincinnati

Invested

$250

Value

$277.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

cm2897CTR

Iowa State

Invested

$156.24

Value

$132.53

PnL

-$23.72

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

User7429CTR

Iowa State

Invested

$144.42

Value

$109.6

PnL

-$34.82

Record

40%

333-501 (834)

Pan9X<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$57.49

Value

$62.16

PnL

+$4.67

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

NotJump<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$41.5

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$14

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

dips.CTR<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$39.2

Value

$33.25

PnL

-$5.95

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Iowa State

Invested

$33.12

Value

$32.04

PnL

-$1.08

Record

43%

185-243 (428)

Research grade

NeutralIowa State at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa State

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Cincinnati 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.