Spread: Miami (OH) (-13.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (71%) · Buffalo at 96¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 4

Miami (OH)5¢Buffalo95¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 71%

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

$9.9K

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 95.5¢

+121% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (OH)5%

Buffalo96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo5 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares39,366

Combined PnL+$10.3K

Miami (OH)2 traders

Total Value$501.37

Total Shares1,509

Combined PnL-$412.19

Buffalo — 71%Miami (OH) — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Buffaloavg 41.7¢	$12.6K	$21.1K	+$8.4K	—
PR primm	Buffaloavg 51¢	$3.1K	$4.3K	+$1.1K	46% 1196-1386 (2582)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Buffaloavg 40.7¢	$651.52	$1.1K	+$460.48	46% 405-476 (881)
RN1	Buffaloavg 41.7¢	$342.15	$569.9	+$227.75	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Miami (OH)avg 59.3¢	$867.91	$469.35	-$398.56	51% 4531-4396 (8927)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Buffaloavg 42.5¢	$287.53	$399.04	+$111.51	56% 7690-6106 (13796)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 43.5¢	$45.65	$32.03	-$13.63	47% 10701-12047 (22748)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Buffalo

Invested

$12,639.13

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$8.4K

Record

—

primm

Buffalo

Invested

$3,122.44

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

1196-1386 (2582)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Buffalo

Invested

$651.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$460.48

Record

46%

405-476 (881)

RN1

Buffalo

Invested

$342.15

Value

$569.9

PnL

+$227.75

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

6512395314597884CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$867.91

Value

$469.35

PnL

-$398.56

Record

51%

4531-4396 (8927)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Buffalo

Invested

$287.53

Value

$399.04

PnL

+$111.51

Record

56%

7690-6106 (13796)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$45.65

Value

$32.03

PnL

-$13.63

Record

47%

10701-12047 (22748)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.