Baylor vs. BYU

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BYU (50%) · BYU at 76¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Baylor24¢BYU76¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BYU

Consensus Traders

BYU 50%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$17.3

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 76¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBYU at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BYU

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Baylor24%

BYU76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BYU5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,021

Combined PnL+$10.72

Baylor5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,605

Combined PnL-$28.02

BYU — 50%Baylor — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	BYUavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10.62	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
DA darkumbreon88	BYUavg 74¢	$631.66	$631.66	+$0	61% 1053-665 (1718)
nigiri99CTR	Bayloravg 26¢	$554.32	$543.66	-$10.66	52% 602-565 (1167)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bayloravg 26¢	$495.45	$485.93	-$9.53	49% 650-689 (1339)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bayloravg 26¢	$312.74	$306.73	-$6.01	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Bayloravg 26¢	$69.94	$68.6	-$1.34	47% 985-1122 (2107)
GH ghorrock<$100	BYUavg 74¢	$24.37	$24.37	+$0	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bayloravg 26¢	$24.83	$24.35	-$0.48	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
EF efntrick<$100	BYUavg 74¢	$14.8	$14.9	+$0.1	45% 96-115 (211)
65 6512395314597884<$100	BYUavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	50% 3874-3873 (7747)

38791873984189

BYU

Invested

$1,561.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.62

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

darkumbreon88

BYU

Invested

$631.66

Value

$631.66

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1053-665 (1718)

nigiri99CTR

Baylor

Invested

$554.32

Value

$543.66

PnL

-$10.66

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Baylor

Invested

$495.45

Value

$485.93

PnL

-$9.53

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

FlaznorpCTR

Baylor

Invested

$312.74

Value

$306.73

PnL

-$6.01

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Baylor

Invested

$69.94

Value

$68.6

PnL

-$1.34

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

ghorrock<$100

BYU

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Baylor

Invested

$24.83

Value

$24.35

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

efntrick<$100

BYU

Invested

$14.8

Value

$14.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

96-115 (211)

6512395314597884<$100

BYU

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

Research grade

NeutralBYU at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BYU

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BYU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.